The US dollar fell during the Asian session, to witness its lowest level since the ninth of November against the Japanese yen, following the developments and economic data that they followed on the Japanese economy and on the cusp of economic developments and data expected today, Wednesday, by the US economy, the largest economy in the world, which includes the actions of the FOMC meeting For the open market and the upcoming press conference of Fed Governor Jerome Powell.
At exactly 06:53 am GMT, the US dollar against the Japanese yen declined by 0.18% to 103.48 levels compared to the opening levels at 103.67, after the pair achieved its lowest level in five weeks at 103.42, while it achieved its highest during the session's trading at 103.72 .
We have followed up on the Japanese economy the release of the Trade Balance Index reading, which showed a narrowing of the surplus to 367 billion yen compared to 872 billion yen in October, in contrast to expectations that indicated a 0.53 trillion yen surplus shrinking, while the seasonally adjusted reading of the same index showed an expansion of the surplus to 0.57 A trillion yen compared to 0.36 trillion yen, beating expectations that the surplus would widen to 0.54 trillion yen.
This came with the annual reading of exports showed a widening decline to 4.2% compared to 0.2%, contrary to expectations for a rise of 0.5%, while the annual reading of imports showed a contraction of the decline to 11.1% compared to 13.3%, contrary to expectations of a decline of 10.5%, and this came, before we see the reading. Preliminary manufacturing PMI by Markit for Japan narrowed the contraction to 49.7 versus 49.0 in November, missing expectations of 48.9.
On the other hand, investors are waiting for the US economy to reveal the retail sales index, which represents about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US GDP, and which may reflect a 0.3% decline compared to a 0.3% rise in October, while The core reading of the same index may show growth slowing to 0.1%, from 0.2% in October.
This comes before we witness the unveiling of the preliminary reading of the Markit Industrial and Service Purchasing Managers Index from the United States, which may reflect the contraction of the industrial sector in the largest industrial country in the world to 55.9 compared to 56.7 in the previous reading for the month of November, and the expansion of the service sector to 55.7 in November, compared to 58.4.
Up to the disclosure of housing market data, with the release of the housing index reading by the National Association of Home Builders, which may reflect a decline to 88 from 90 in November, in conjunction with the release of the final reading of the wholesale stocks index, which may indicate slowing growth to 0.6% compared to 0.7 % In September, and this also coincides with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in Washington.
It is expected that monetary policy makers at the Federal Reserve Bank will keep the short-term reference interest rates at their lowest level ever, between zero and 0.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting, while revealing the expectations of the members of the Committee for growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future interest rates. For the next three years, half an hour before Fed Governor Jerome Powell's press conference.
Technical analysis
The dollar versus yen managed to break the 103.65 level and settle below it now, to activate the bearish trend scenario in the intraday and short term, paving the way for achieving new negative targets that start at 103.00 and extend to 102.50.
Thus, we are waiting for more decline during the coming sessions, taking into account that failure to hold below 103.65 will push the price to start recovery attempts targeting 104.76 areas initially.
The expected trading range for today is between 102.70 support and 104.00 resistance