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Hurricane called "Sandy" significantly reduced activity in the markets
 
Now besides waiting for the results of the presidential election race, terrifying hurricane "Sandy", which hit the east coast of the United States, finally plunged into gloom market participants. Yesterday the U.S. market almost traded and may continue today ...
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Hurricane called "Sandy" significantly reduced activity in the markets
 
Now besides waiting for the results of the presidential election race, terrifying hurricane "Sandy", which hit the east coast of the United States, finally plunged into gloom market participants. Yesterday the U.S. market almost traded and may continue today as these forced the weekend. Waiting for a large-scale damage to the U.S. hurricane led to the cessation of operations by the major banks and investment firms.
 
A small burst of activity can now call statistics from Germany, as well as the speech Draghi.
 
Well, for important events, the players' attention this week will be on Friday's data from the U.S. labor market. Meanwhile, due to the hurricane in the United States today, we do not expect high activity in the markets.
 
Statistics today:
Moscow time
12.00 Eurozone ECB President's speech M.Dragi
12.55 Australia's Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia F.Louva
Germany 12.55 Changing the number of unemployed in September n / a; 10.000; 9.000
10.13 Eurozone business activity in retail trade in October n / a; n / a; 47,1
15.00 UK Realized sales from October CBI n / a; 8, 6
16.30 Canada commodity price index in September n / a; 1,2% m / m, 3.4% y / y
16.30 Canada price index for manufactured goods in September n / a; 0,2% m / m, -0.1% m / m
17.00 U.S. home price index of 20 metropolitan areas of the S & P / Case-Shiller August n / a; 1,9% y / y 1.2% y / y
18.00 U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board in October n / a; 72,4; 70,3
20.30 U.S. President's speech the New York Fed U.Dadli
23.30 Presentation Canada Governor of the Bank of Canada M.Karni
 

Sergei Kostenko

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Активность на рынках падает перед результатами выборов в Штатах...

Американский рынок акций закрылся в пятницу в небольшом плюсе благодаря хорошим данным по ВВП, которые продемонстрировали рост на 2.0% против прогнозируемого значения 1.8%. Но довольно слабая отчетность некоторых ведущих компаний умерила позитивные настроения инвесторов. Акции Apple Inc. потеряли до 0.91% ...

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Активность на рынках падает перед результатами выборов в Штатах...

Американский рынок акций закрылся в пятницу в небольшом плюсе благодаря хорошим данным по ВВП, которые продемонстрировали рост на 2.0% против прогнозируемого значения 1.8%. Но довольно слабая отчетность некоторых ведущих компаний умерила позитивные настроения инвесторов. Акции Apple Inc. потеряли до 0.91% по причине слабых прогнозов рентабельности.
Американский банковский индекс BKX закрылся вчера на уровне 49.25 (-0.91%). Бумаги JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Co. и Citigroup Inc. потеряли от 1.22% до 2.17%.
 
Фондовые индексы США  по итогам предыдущего торгового дня закрылись на уровнях: DJI– 13,107.21 (+0.03%); S&P 500 – 1,411.94 (-0.07%); NASDAQ Comp. – 2,987.95 (+0.06%)
В преддверии американской торговой сессии  фьючерс на индекс широкого рынка S&P 500 составляет 1,401.30 (-0.45%). Рынки США откроются в красной зоне.
 
Нефтяные фьючерсы перед открытием Нью-Йорка продолжают торговаться разнонаправленно в ожидании результатов выборов в США.
Фьючерсы на нефть марки Brent Oil (ICE) днем на уровне 110.09 (+0.49%), американская нефть марки WTI (ICE) 86.16 (-0.14%).  Фьючерс на золото находится на уровне 1,713.20 (+0.08%), котировки меди на уровне 350.80 (-1.18).          
Товарный индекс Голдманн Сакс XOI в прошлую сессию остановился на уровне  1227.38 (+0.10%).

На валютном рынке продолжается консолидация с небольшим ростом доллара США. В целом ситуация на рынках остается умерено негативная из-за неопределенности связанной с победителем президентской гонки в США.   
Фьючерс на индекс доллара, который отражает стоимость американской валюты против торгово-взвешенной корзины из других валют, составляет 80.28 (+0.20%).   

Прогноз дня:       
Можно предположить, что EURUSD будет продолжать консолидироваться в диапазоне 1.2890-1.2965.
 
События сегодня:
Время московское  
16.30 США Базовый индекс потребительских цен сентябрь n/a;0,1% м/м; 0,1% м/м
16.30 США Расходы потребителей сентябрь n/a;0,6% м/м; 0,5% м/м
16.30 США Доходы потребителей сентябрь n/a; 0,5% м/м; 0,1% м/м

Сергей Костенко

*Рекомендации,  указанные в статье, не могут служить основанием к прямым действиям.

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EUR / USD
 
News background:
Pair decreases with the overall incidence of appetite for risky game on the eve of the U.S. presidential election.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the price is in the short-term downtrend in the lower Bollinger below EMA 5, 21, ...
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EUR / USD
 
News background:
Pair decreases with the overall incidence of appetite for risky game on the eve of the U.S. presidential election.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the price is in the short-term downtrend in the lower Bollinger below EMA 5, 21, and SMA 100 and 200. Pair has the potential to reduce local, if kept below the level of 1.2575.
LED Stoch. indicating a potential decrease in pair. RSI also supports the possibility of reducing pary.
 
 
Trading recommendations.
Buy the pair on the rebound from a local to 1.2940.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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EUR / USD
 
News background:
Pair decreases with the overall incidence of appetite for risky game on the eve of the U.S. presidential election.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the price is in the short-term downtrend in the lower Bollinger below EMA 5, 21, ...
Read more...
 
EUR / USD
 
News background:
Pair decreases with the overall incidence of appetite for risky game on the eve of the U.S. presidential election.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the price is in the short-term downtrend in the lower Bollinger below EMA 5, 21, and SMA 100 and 200. Pair has the potential to reduce local, if kept below the level of 1.2575.
LED Stoch. indicating a potential decrease in pair. RSI also supports the possibility of reducing pary.
 
 
Trading recommendations.
Buy the pair on the rebound from a local to 1.2940.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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Markets continue to wait ...
 
European stock market closed on Friday due to the growth of better than expected data on U.S. GDP. Preliminary GDP data for the third quarter showed an increase of 2.0% against the projected growth of 1.8%. But in general, the markets continue to ...
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Markets continue to wait ...
 
European stock market closed on Friday due to the growth of better than expected data on U.S. GDP. Preliminary GDP data for the third quarter showed an increase of 2.0% against the projected growth of 1.8%. But in general, the markets continue to remain under pressure due to expectations of presidential elections in the U.S.. Weak reporting companies Ericsson, Renault, Saint Gobain and Publicis are unlikely to boost optimism in the market. With the reduction of the rating agency Standard & Poor's credit rating of the bank BNP Paribas, as well as ratings of the room Credit Agricole, Societe Generale and BPCE put pressure on the securities of companies in the financial sector.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 105.90 (-0.38%). Shares of UniCredit, Societe Generale and BNP Paribas lost between 0.68% to 1.26%.
 
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,806.71 (+0.03%); DAX 30 - 7,231.85 (+0.44%); CAC 40 - 3,435.09 (+0.69%). Futures DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2498.00 (+0.04). European stock markets open neutral.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Friday at 1,097.35 (+0.13%).
 
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.73% (-0.012 points), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.54% (-0.046 points), and 10-year-old UK Government Bonds is 1.87% (-0.046 points).
 
Oil futures on the morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe continue to be consolidated in anticipation of the U.S. elections and Hurricane "Sandy."
Mark Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 109.09 (-0.42%) and the U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 85.93 (-0.41%).
Gold futures morning at 1,717.70 (+0.34%), quotes copper at 355.05 (+0.01%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 296.84 (-0.30%).
 
In the currency market, the dollar is supported, but overall activity in the markets is very low in anticipation of the state selection and closing auctions.
The dollar index ICE, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 80.23 (+0.09%).
    
Prediction of the day:
We can assume that EURUSD will continue to consolidate in the range of 1.2890-1.2965.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
during the day Germany Preliminary data on the consumer price index in October n / a; 0,0% m / m and 0.0% m / m
14.30 UK change in total private lending September n / a; 0,6 billion pounds -0.4 billion pounds
14.30 UK Money supply M4 September n / a; 0,4% m / m and 0.2% m / m
14.30 UK Number of approved applications for mortgage September n / a; 49.000; 48.000
17.30 U.S. core consumer price index in September n / a; 0,1% m / m and 0.1% m / m
17:30 U.S. September Consumer spending n / a; 0,6% m / m and 0.5% m / m
17:30 U.S. September consumer income n / a; 0,5% m / m and 0.1% m / m
 
Sergei Kostenko
 

*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

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Investors are awaiting the results of elections in the United States
 
Tension in world markets continues to grow, pending the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. This is primarily determined by the uncertainty that exists. So far, no candidate has received a decisive majority, which means investors do ...
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Investors are awaiting the results of elections in the United States
 
Tension in world markets continues to grow, pending the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. This is primarily determined by the uncertainty that exists. So far, no candidate has received a decisive majority, which means investors do not have a clear and a clear view on the prospects of a new program of quantitative easing and the possibility of so-called "fiscal cliff" is still in force.
 
Friday's GDP data for the third quarter in the U.S. were better than expected + 2.0% compared with an expected growth of 1.8%. Growth in consumer spending, federal government spending, and a clear improvement in the housing market indicates that the economy continues recovering, though still rather slow pace due to European problems. But the data could not support investor sentiment, as the prospect of elections continues to put pressure on the markets.
 
In the currency market, the same uncertainty continues. Concern over Greece, and unclear prospects of appeal whether Spain for financial aid is a negative factor for the single currency, and in general for the propensity of investors to buy riskier assets.
 
Lowering the last week by the rating agency Standard & Poor's credit rating of the bank BNP Paribas, due, according to the agency, increasing the "economic risks" in France, as well as in southern Europe, where the French bank a significant presence, does not add optimism to investors. S & P also placed the ratings of the French Credit Agricole, Societe Generale and BPCE on the upward revision of the negative.
 
Today active in global markets may be reduced because of approaching the U.S. East Coast hurricane, which forced to close their doors NYSE and NASDAQ.
 
In general, one can hardly expect major movements in the markets before the U.S. elections.
 
Today we should pay attention to the statistics from Germany and the USA.
 
Statistics today:
Moscow time
during the day Germany Preliminary data on the consumer price index in October n / a; 0,0% m / m and 0.0% m / m
14.30 UK change in total private lending September n / a; 0,6 billion pounds -0.4 billion pounds
14.30 UK Money supply M4 September n / a; 0,4% m / m and 0.2% m / m
14.30 UK Number of approved applications for mortgage September n / a; 49.000; 48.000
17.30 U.S. core consumer price index in September n / a; 0,1% m / m and 0.1% m / m
17:30 U.S. September Consumer spending n / a; 0,6% m / m and 0.5% m / m
17:30 U.S. September consumer income n / a; 0,5% m / m and 0.1% m / m
 
Sergei Kostenko
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The uncertainty on the markets remains
 
The uncertainty due to the presidential elections in the U.S. continues to unnerve investors. This is the beginning to fully manifest itself with the approach of November 6. Equal chances of candidates and their different understanding of what to do in the ...
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The uncertainty on the markets remains
 
The uncertainty due to the presidential elections in the U.S. continues to unnerve investors. This is the beginning to fully manifest itself with the approach of November 6. Equal chances of candidates and their different understanding of what to do in the current economic climate, contribute to this uncertainty. This forces players to cut positions to reduce risk. Concerns about the possibility of "fiscal cliff" neutralize markets, and forces them to consolidate.
As a result, the market is becoming thin and increasing volatility. But based on the dynamics of the 10-year U.S. bonds, in general, investors are looking favorably on the market. And most of all, the dynamics we see after the election - after the fact.
 
Lowering the credit ratings of a number of French BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Crédit Agricole banks by rating agency Standard & Poors dealt an additional blow to market sentiment. The single currency was under pressure, but in general it continues to consolidate.
 
Commodity currencies are reduced due to the sharp fall in oil prices, which do not support any tension around Iran, nor the events in Syria.
 
Given all the above it can be assumed that this situation will continue until the elections in the States.
 
Today we should pay attention to the U.S. GDP data for the third quarter. If the data does not disappoint, it can locally to pressure on the U.S. dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
16.30 U.S. GDP grew 3 kv.2012 n / a; 1,8; q / q, 1.3% q / q
16:30 U.S. Q3 GDP deflator. 2012 n / a; 2,0% q / q and 1.6% q / q
17.55 U.S. revised data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in October n / a; 82,7; 83,1
17.55 Revised data on U.S. inflation expectations from the University of Michigan in October n / a; n / a; 3,1%
 

Sergei Kostenko

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Markets continue to react nervously to the news from Europe
 
European shares finished trading mixed Thursday amid new concerns related to Greece. Of the IMF report, which was published yesterday, that Athens must also additional time to resolve their problems. And as previously stated European officials and Greece ...
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Markets continue to react nervously to the news from Europe
 
European shares finished trading mixed Thursday amid new concerns related to Greece. Of the IMF report, which was published yesterday, that Athens must also additional time to resolve their problems. And as previously stated European officials and Greece still need 30 billion euros ($ 39 billion) to compensate for a deep recession and the lag of the austerity plan. Yesterday's lowering of credit ratings of a number of French BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Crédit Agricole banks by rating agency Standard & Poors dealt an additional blow to market sentiment.
Today will be held accountable for the third quarter of the Norwegian oil company Statoil and Spanish banks Banco Popular Caixa Bank.
 
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 106.30 (-1.18%).
 
Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 5,802.44 (-0.04%); DAX 30 - 7,200.23 (+0.10%); CAC 40 - 3,411.53 (-0.44%). Futures on the DJ STOXX 50 in the morning prior to the opening of trading in Europe is 2,459.00 (-0.81%). Trading in Europe with open reduction.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Thursday at 1,095.90 (+0.20%).
 
Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.80% (-0.028 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.55% (-0.030 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 1.91% (+0.064 NCP).
 
Oil futures morning before the opening of the European trading session down for reasons of sustainable concerns that demand for raw material assets will fall.
Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 107.57 (-0.86%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 85.30 (-0.88%).
Gold futures morning at 1,713.40 (+0.69%), quotes of copper at
358.30 (+0.42%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 297.74 (+0.02%).
 
In the currency market, the dollar is supported against decrease in Asian markets due to weak yesterday's quarterly statements of U.S. companies. Under strong pressure from commodity currencies are due to a sharp drop in prices of oil in the Asian trading session. The single currency was also reduced due to yesterday's slide agency Standard & Poors credit rating of major French banks.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 80.24 (+0.15%).
    
Prediction of the day:
EUR/USD pair today can also try to test the level of 1.2875, if U.S. GDP data will be worse than forecast. At the same time, the output statistics in line with the forecast can locally support the single currency and it may again test the level of 1.3000.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
11.00 Switzerland KOF economic barometer October n / a; 1,72; 1,67
16.30 U.S. GDP grew 3 kv.2012 n / a; 1,8; q / q, 1.3% q / q
16:30 U.S. Q3 GDP deflator. 2012 n / a; 2,0% q / q and 1.6% q / q
17.55 U.S. revised data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in October n / a; 82,7; 83,1
17.55 Revised data on U.S. inflation expectations from the University of Michigan in October n / a; n / a; 3,1%
 
Sergei Kostenko
 
*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.
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USD / JPY
 
News background:
The pair continues to receive support amid expectations of further increase the liquidity of the Bank of Japan in the local market. Dollar gets additional support through the Fed confirmed earlier embarked on a soft monetary policy.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical ...
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USD / JPY
 
News background:
The pair continues to receive support amid expectations of further increase the liquidity of the Bank of Japan in the local market. Dollar gets additional support through the Fed confirmed earlier embarked on a soft monetary policy.
 
Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, the price is in the short-term uptrend. At the top of the Bollinger bands above EMA 5, 21, and SMA 100 and 200. Pair has the potential to rise to the level of the local end of June of this year, 80.60, if it manages to consolidate above the 79.70 level.
Indicators Stoch. and RSI shows overbought.
 
 
Trading recommendations. Buy a couple of down on the rebound from a local to 80.60.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina.

Analytical department of Grand Capital

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Market stabilized in anticipation of elections in the United States ...
 
Yesterday was filled with a large number of events that have helped to stabilize global markets after strong sales on Tuesday amid frustrations associated with the restoration of the American economy. First news that Athens got a ...
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Market stabilized in anticipation of elections in the United States ...
 
Yesterday was filled with a large number of events that have helped to stabilize global markets after strong sales on Tuesday amid frustrations associated with the restoration of the American economy. First news that Athens got a reprieve from the budget payments on the loans taken earlier, suspended further decline in the common currency. Then the good news from the U.S. housing market have returned to the markets positive mood. Sales of new homes in the U.S. in September rose by 5.7 percent on a monthly basis to 389,000 units. And at the end of the day the Fed's decision to leave his earlier embarked on a soft monetary policy finally helped stabilize financial markets.
 
In that sense it's very important for investors was further confirmation of the position of the Federal Reserve. Bernanke said the Fed will buy unlimited quantities of mortgage securities and short-term bonds. It is thought that the program Twist-2 will also be in one form or another continued.
 
U.S. bond market's reaction to the growth of the revenue bonds, which indicates that investors believe the Fed and that the situation has improved out of money from bonds into riskier assets will continue.
 
Currency market reacted to yesterday's events clearly, the weakening of the U.S. dollar against major currencies. Yen continues to fall against the dollar on expectations of growing new incentives. It seems that the dream of the Japanese regulator decreases the yen starts to come true.
 
In general we can say that before the election in the U.S. picture won't change. Rates are too high in the event and market participants do not want to risk.
 
Today we should pay attention to data from the UK and the U.S..
 
Events today:
Moscow time
12.00 Eurozone M3 money supply in September n / a; 3,0% y / y, 2.9% y / y
12.00 Eurozone private sector lending in September n / a; -0,4% y / y, -0.6% y / y
12.30 UK Preliminary data on GDP growth 3 kv.2012 n / a; 0,6% q / q, -0.4% q / q
12.30 UK PMI services sector in August n / a; 0,5% 3m/3m, 0.1% 3m/3m
14.15 Great Presentations by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Tucker
Basic index of 16.30 U.S. orders for durable goods in September n / a; 0,8% m / m, -1.6% m / m
16.30 The number of U.S. claims for unemployment benefits for the week October 14-20 n / a; 366,000; 388,000
16.30 U.S. orders for durable goods in September n / a; 6,9% m / m, -13.2% y / y
18.00 Outstanding U.S. home sales in September n / a; 2,4% m / m, -2.6% m / m
18:30 U.S. natural gas reserves for the week October 14-20 n / a; n / a; 51 billion cubic meters. ft
 

Sergei Kostenko

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