Analytic reviews

    
The Eurozone again reminds about itself...

Political problems in Spain and Italy rose to the surface again, and do not give market participants "relax" and trade risky assets with "enjoyment". Political crisis that erupted in Spain against corruption in high places, had a negative impact on the local debt market. Profitability of the Spanish 10-year government bonds rose to 5.44%, ie the highest level since December last year, after the publication of allegations of corruption and the ruling party in Spain.

For these reasons, a positive tone in the markets of the euro area, which was established in fact the end of last year, as the wind blew, and the single currency came under heavy pressure. Obviously, the absence of new positive news ceased to support the euro, which up to this from a technical point of view was quite overbought.

The latest economic news from Australia continue to please investors and not have a negative impact on the currency. Data on foreign trade in December was negative. The balance of foreign trade in goods and services was negative and amounted to -1534 million Australian dollars. Compared with November, the deficit was reduced by 184 million Australian dollars. Along with the seasonal correction in December trade surplus totaled -427 million Australian dollars. In November, the deficit was at the level of 2361 million Australian dollars.

Waiting for the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy somewhat stabilize the overall situation, as most experts believe that the RBA would leave interest rates unchanged.

Generally assess the picture is in the markets, it can be characterized as the end of New Year's rally and the beginning of correction in all financial markets.

Events today:
Moscow time
13.00 Eurozone Final data on the index of business activity in the services sector in January n / a; 48,3; 48,3
13.30 UK index of business activity in the services sector in January n / a; 49,8; 48,9
14.00 Eurozone retail sales in December n / a; -0,5% m / m and 0.1% m / m
17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Duke Speech
19.00 U.S. ISM index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector in January n / a; 55,2; 56,1
19.00 U.S. index of business optimism IBD / TIPP February n / a; 46,1; 46,5
21.00 Speech Switzerland SNB board member Zurbrugga

Sergei Kostenko

* Recommendations listed in this article, can not serve as a basis for direct action.

Good macro data from the U.S. and China support the markets ...

European shares ended trading on Thursday due to the growth of good macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. and China. Vodafone shares rose 3.2% on renewed rumors of a possible sale of its 45% stake in Verizon Wireless. Paper International Consolidated Airlines Group soared by 4.9% due to optimism about EasyJet, whose shares have risen by 5.1%. A company EasyJet reached maximum performance from the start of operations in 2000, a growth of profit in the 1st quarter at a 9.2%.
Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.23%, to close at 288.89 points.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 125.54 (+1.78%). UniCredit shares rose in price by 4.2%, Deutsche Bank added 2.6%, Intesa Sanpaolo rose by 2.5% and BNP Paribas 2.1%.


Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 6,264.91 (+1.09%); DAX 30 - 7,748.13 (+0.53%); CAC 40 - 3,752.17 (+0.70%). Futures morning before the opening of trading in Europe FTSE 100 IDX - 3,752.17 (-0.04%); DAX INDEX - 7746.30 (-0.06%); CAC40 - 3745.30 (-0.09%). Trading in Europe will open neutral.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Thursday at 1,171.06 (+0.29%).

Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.86%, the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.57%, and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 2.01%.

Oil futures morning before the opening of the European trading session, remain at highs after yesterday's growth on positive macroeconomic data from China and the U.S..
Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 113.13 (-0.13%), and U.S. crude oil WTI 96.01 (+0.06%).
Gold futures morning at 1,671.10 (+0.07%), quotes of copper at
369.20 (+0.41%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 300.42 (-0.06%).
 
Volatility in the foreign exchange market has grown considerably, but in general, until the situation is fundamentally different. Euro tries to storm 1.3400 level which could lead to a new local maximum.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 80.09 (+0.10%).
     
Prediction of the day:
EURUSD could test the 1.3450 level.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
13.00 Germany Ifo business climate index in January n / a; 103,1; 102,4
during the day World Economic Forum
13.30 UK Preliminary data on GDP growth kv.2012 4 n / a; -0,1% q / q and 0.9% q / q
13.30 UK index of business activity in the service sector in November n / a; 0,5% 3m/3m, 1.1% 3m/3m
17.30 Canada Core CPI in December n / a; -0,2% m / m and 0.0% m / m
17:30 Canada CPI q n / a; -0,2% m / m, -0.2% m / m
19.00 U.S. sales in the primary market in December n / a; 383,000; 377,000

Sergei Kostenko
 
* Recommendations listed in this article, can not serve as a basis for direct action.

The yen is likely to continue to fall ...

Japanese regulator managed to do the impossible, that it has not been possible to do for a long time, namely to contribute to the strong weakening of the yen against the dollar and the euro. The yen fell to a minimum 2.5 years against the U.S. dollar and a 21-month low against the euro due to continued soft policy of the Central Bank of Japan. After a small correction of the yen continued to fall on the statements of Deputy Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, who said yesterday that the "decline rates have not yet completed and the level of 100 to the U.S. dollar will not be a problem." And it seems that USDJPY can expect the level of 95.00 in the short term.

At the same time waiting for data on inflation in Canada has a negative pressure on the Canadian dollar. Today Canada is to publish data on inflation. It is assumed that the consumer price index fell by 0.2%. If expectations are correct, then such a moderate inflation will support the U.S. dollar against canadian dollar, as it levels out a possible rise in interest rates in the short term.

The British pound also has the potential to continue to fall against the dollar amid disappointing economic data on the British economy.

In general we can say that in the short term, do not expect further weakening of the U.S. dollar.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
13.00 Germany Ifo business climate index in January n / a; 103,1; 102,4
during the day World Economic Forum
13.30 UK Preliminary data on GDP growth kv.2012 4 n / a; -0,1% q / q and 0.9% q / q
13.30 UK index of business activity in the service sector in November n / a; 0,5% 3m/3m, 1.1% 3m/3m
17.30 Canada Core CPI in December n / a; -0,2% m / m and 0.0% m / m
17:30 Canada CPI q n / a; -0,2% m / m, -0.2% m / m
19.00 U.S. sales in the primary market in December n / a; 383,000; 377,000

Sergei Kostenko

* Recommendations listed in this article, can not serve as a basis for direct action.

Good data from the United States will support the U.S. dollar ...

The U.S. stock market was closed on Wednesday amid growing good reporting by IBM which has led to a rally in the technology sector, triggering the growth of securities Microsoft (+1.7%), Apple (+1.8%), IBM (+4.4%) and Google (+5.5% ). Google shares soared because of a better reporting than expected.
American BKX bank index closed yesterday at 53.73 (-0.33%).

U.S. stock indexes for the previous trading day to close at: DJI-13,779.33 (+0.49%); S & P 500 - 1,494.81 (+0.15%); NASDAQ Comp. - 3,153.67 (+0.33%)
On the eve of the U.S. trading session, futures on the broad market index S & P 500 is 1,487.20 (-0.21%). U.S. markets will open with a reduction.
 
Oil futures before opening in New York traded in different directions in anticipation of the release of the oil and petroleum products in the U.S.. Oil reserves in the last week, is expected to have grown by 1.7 million barrels.
Crude futures mark Brent Oil (ICE) day at 112.58 (+0.14%), U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 96.79 (+0.11%). Gold futures stood at 1,678.20 (-0.50%), quotes copper at 367.00 (-0.39%).
Goldmann Sachs Commodity Index XOI last session stood at 1311.00 (-0.24%).

In the currency market mixed trend continues . European currencies continue to be consolidated in anticipation statistics from Europe and America. Commodity currencies before the discovery of America down to the expectations of lower prices of oil. Pound falls due to weak statistics on the national economy.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.83 (-0.18%).

Prediction of the day:
Good data from the U.S. are able to support the U.S. dollar. In general, we believe that the growth of euro will be limited level of 1.3400.

Events today:
Moscow time
17.30 U.S. Jobless Claims for the week of January 12-18, n / a; 361,000; 335,000
19.00 U.S. Leading indicators index in December n / a; 0,4% m / m, -0.2% m / m
19.30 U.S. natural gas reserves for the week January 12-18, n / a; n / a; -148 billion cubic meters. ft.
20.00 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks

Sergei Kostenko

* Recommendations listed in the article, can not serve as a basis for direct action.

*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

*Recommendations listed in this article, can not be used as a base for the direct actions.

Analytical department of Grand Capital