Analytic reviews

The last few weeks of trading pair GBP / USD shows a smooth correction movement. This week is likely to continue the trend.

Last week, the pair managed to consolidate above the 1.5200 level, which is a positive sign for the bulls.

Trading recommendation: the pair can test the level 1.5380 during the week. Ability to stop can be a resistance 1.5260, which does not prevent the general trend indicated in the recommendation.



The support is at 1.5092. The breakthrough of this level aim pair to reduce to a minimum the 1.5025 March 20, and then - to 1.4829, a minimum of two and a half years, achieved on March 12.

Analyst Igor Vladimirov

Wall Street is unlikely to continue to grow ...

The U.S. stock market closed on Tuesday is very negative amid expectations early reduction in the Fed's stimulus measures. Under pressure were shares of companies of the banking and technology sectors. Shares of Oracle Corp and Apple Inc lost 1.3% and 2.3% respectively. Paper Bank of America Co. and Citigroup Inc. fell by 1.2% and 1.4% respectively.
U.S. banks BKX index closed at 56.69 (-0.74%).

U.S. stock indexes for the previous day to close at: DJI-14,450.06 (+0.02%), S & P 500 - 1,552.48 (-0.24%), NASDAQ Comp. - 3,242.32 (-0.32%). On the eve of the U.S. trading session, advanced futures on the S & P 500 is 1,547.50 (+0.05%). U.S. markets will open in a small plus.

Oil futures before the opening of trading in New York, continues to consolidate in anticipation of data on oil and petroleum products in the U.S., which will be published later.
Crude futures mark Brent Oil (ICE) day at 109.32 (-0.30%), the U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 92.99 (+0.48%) in trading in Europe.
Gold futures is 1,593.70 (+0.13%), quotes copper at 354.65 (+0.23%).
Goldmann Sachs Commodity Index XOI last session stood at 1,354.79 (+0.51%).

In the currency market, the dollar gets support amid better-than-expected data on retail sales +1.1% against the forecast of growth of 0.6%, which came at 1630 GMT.
Futures on the ICE dollar to a basket of major currencies is 82.74 (+0.18%).
   
Prediction of the day:
Against the background of published data EURUSD pair may fall to the level of 1.2900, if the 1.2950 level will be overcome.

Events today:
Moscow time
18.00 U.S. business inventories in January n / a; 0,3% m / m and 0.1% m / m
18:30 U.S. Change oil 04.03-10.03 n / a; n / a; 3,8 million barrels.
21.00 U.S. auction on placement of 10-year Treasury bonds 2.05 / 2.7

Sergei Kostenko
 
* The recommendations specified in article cannot serve as a basis to direct action.

The first bell rang ...

Yesterday's continued closure of long positions in the Japanese yen showed that investors have doubts crept in to the account, will continue to shed dollar rain on the financial markets. Judging from the dynamics that marked not only the yen, but the gold and markets in general, we can say that the recent excellent data from the labor market players adjust to the fact that the Fed, sooner rather than later will reduce the volume of infusion of money in the economy. And so, it is quite a long rally has the potential to finish.

British pound yesterday also continued its vertical drop, which is based on the decision of the Bank of England to carry out a soft monetary policy aimed at stimulating the economy.

At the same time, the euro is almost in place, reflecting no doubt that the dollar would be supported against the previously spoken words Draghi in favor of the euro, and the lack of real incentives for buying foreign currency due to the recession in the euro-zone economy and the political crisis in Italy.

Overall, the picture in the market is not expressive and unprincipled. Today we should pay attention to the data from the eurozone and the U.S..

Statistics today:
Moscow time
14.00 Eurozone industrial output in January n / a; -0,1% m / m, 0.7% y / y
during the day UK auction of 30-year government bonds 2.95 / 1.5
Basic 16.30 U.S. retail sales in February n / a; 0,2% m / m and 0.2% m / m
16.30 U.S. retail sales in February n / a; 0,5% m / m and 0.1% m / m
16.30 U.S. Import prices in February n / a; 0,5% m / m and 0.6% m / m
18.00 U.S. business inventories in January n / a; 0,3% m / m and 0.1% m / m
18:30 U.S. Change oil 04.03-10.03 n / a; n / a; 3,8 million barrels.
21.00 U.S. auction on placement of 10-year Treasury bonds 2.05 / 2.7

Sergei Kostenko

* The recommendations specified in article cannot serve as a basis to direct action.

Markets consolidated due to the lack of new ideas...

The U.S. stock market was closed on Monday growth, continuing the rally, amid expectations of accelerating the rate of economic growth. The main impetus for this is an extension of the incentives, and a pretty good economic data recently. Dell shares rose 1.5% after the agreement with Icahn Enterprises. Paper Apple Inc, Citigroup Inc and Boeing Co rose from 1.4% to 2.1%, and Research in Motion Ltd shot up by 14.0%.
U.S. banks BKX index closed at 57.11 (+0.92%).

U.S. stock indexes for the previous day to close at: DJI-14,447.29 (+0.35%), S & P 500 - 1,556.22 (+0.32%), NASDAQ Comp. - 3,252.87 (+0.26%). On the eve of the U.S. trading session, advanced futures on the S & P 500 is 1,547.20 (-0.21%). U.S. markets will open with a reduction.

Oil futures before the opening of trading in New York continue to be consolidated on a background of weak data from China and tensions in the Middle East because of the civil war in Syria.
Crude futures mark Brent Oil (ICE) day at 109.95 (-0.25%), the U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 92.10 (+0.04%) in trading in Europe.
Gold futures is 1,593.70 (+0.99%).
Goldmann Sachs Commodity Index XOI last session stood at 1,547.20 (+0.05%).

In the currency market, the dollar began to decline against major currencies amid growing concern that the unchecked growth of the last time the market amid optimism the U.S. economic recovery, somewhat subsided.
Futures on the ICE dollar to a basket of major currencies is 82.71 (+0.15%).
   
Prediction of the day:
EURUSD pair on the background correction dollar can grow up to the level of 1.3050-60.

Events today:
Moscow time
19.00 Assessment of changes in UK NIESR GDP from December to February n / a; n / a; 0,0% / 3m
22.00 U.S. Federal budget balance in February n / a; -220,0 billion dollars, 2.9 billion

Sergei Kostenko
 
* The recommendations referred to in Article can not serve as a basis for direct action.

GBP/USD

News background:
The British pound remained under pressure amid weakness of the UK economy with the additional pressure it receives by becoming ever more positive attitude of investors to the U.S. currency due to expectations of rising rates of economic recovery.

Technical picture:
Pair is below 1.4900, and in the lower Bollinger under EMA 5 and EMA 21. The RSI is below 50%, and points to the continuation of the downward trend, and the oscillator Stoch. crosses the level of 50%, which also indicates the probability of gain reduction pair.

Trading recommendations. Sell ​​pair for any growth to 1.4650.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina
Analytical department of Grand Capital

Forex market traders are confused ...

Still in the financial markets is a critical factor in the idea that the Fed will pump up the financial system with liquidity. And this is really the one hand that way, but the other recent data from the U.S. labor market were much better and cause investors to seriously consider the option of an earlier phase of stimulus measures. It is this kind of ambiguous situation continues to have a direct impact on the market, causing the absence of any specific dynamics.
If the U.S. stock market continues to grow by leaps and bounds, pulling for a commodity market, the problems in the euro zone is still a negative impact on investor sentiment caused Italian political crisis and economic downturn in Europe. This picture is reflected dynamics eurodollar currency pair, which is actually the end of February at a standstill.
One can assume that this is not positive dynamics in the market will exist until such time as the market is not to determine the prospects of stimulus measures in the United States. Bernanke energetic assurances that the incentives will continue as much as necessary, and with positive statistics from the labor market will continue to mislead investors.

Statistics today:
Moscow time
13.30 UK manufacturing output in January n / a;; 0,1% m / m and 1.6% m / m
13.30 UK trade balance in January n / a; -8,8 billion pounds -8.9 billion pounds
13.30 UK industrial output in January n / a; 0,1% m / m and 1.1% m / m
16.30 U.S. NFIB small business from February n / a; 91,3; 88,9
19.00 Assessment of changes in UK NIESR GDP from December to February n / a; n / a; 0,0% / 3m
22.00 U.S. Federal budget balance in February n / a; -220,0 billion dollars, 2.9 billion

Sergei Kostenko

* Recommendations identified in the article does not serve as a basis for direct action.

News background:
The market expects the ECB's rate decision and attempts to identify what M. Draghi will say about political issues in Spain and Italy. If he says something negative, it certainly would put pressure on the euro.

Technical picture:
From a technical point of view, a pair remains in a sideways trend. Price above the EMA 5 and EMA 21 and is located at the upper border of the Bollinger Bands.
Oscillator Stoch. and RSI indicator indicate the probability of a pair of local growth and the continuation of the upward movement.



Trading recommendations. Sell ​​locally couple if Draghi will express a negative opinion about the situation in Europe with a local to 1.3425.
 
Technical analyst at Forex Bulygina Marina
Analytical department of Grand Capital


* Recommendations listed in this article, can not serve as a basis for direct action.

The market expects the ECB meeting tomorrow ...
                
European stock markets closed in positive territory thanks to statistics from the U.S. and Europe. PMI data for the services supported by the eurozone market, the U.S. non-manufacturing sector data also showed that there is an increase in activity in the last month. Against this background, the leaders of growth were shares of Munich Re, which rose by 3.9% after reporting results for the 4th quarter and the statements of the plans to increase dividends.
Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.58%, to close at 285.56 points.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 119.32 (+1.83%). Paper Banco Santander and BBVA have risen by 3.0% and 2.3% respectively. BBVA received additional support due to higher broker recommendations. UniCredit shares gained 2.5%, Intesa Sanpaolo rose by 2.1%.


Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 6,282.76 (+0.58%); DAX 30 - 7,664.66 (+0.35%); CAC 40 - 3,694.70 (+0.95%). Futures morning before the opening of trading in Europe FTSE 100 IDX - 6,251.50 (+0.21%); DAX INDEX -, 675.50 (+0.13%); CAC40 - 3,697.50 (+0.01%). Trading in Europe opened in positive territory.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Monday at 1,154.47 (+0.31%).

Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 2.01% (+0.010 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.66% (0.000 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 2.12% (+0.040 NCP).

Oil futures morning before the opening of the European trading session traded without any changes due to the strong statistics yesterday from Europe and the U.S., in spite of yesterday's data on the growth in U.S. oil inventories last week.
Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 116.57 (+0.04%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 96.61 (-0.03%).
Gold futures morning at 1,673.60 (+0.01%), quotes of copper at
376.70 (-0.08%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 304.14 (+0.40%).
 
In the currency market, the dollar is supported against the Australian dollar and the British pound because the weakness of the economies of Australia and Britain. Yen continues almost vertical fall against the euro and the dollar because of expectations of change Shirakawa Prime Minister in March, not in April. The euro is almost froze in anticipation of the ECB's monetary policy meeting, which will be held tomorrow.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.70 (+0.20%).
     
Prediction of the day:
EURUSD pair today seem to continue to be adjusted down to the level of 1.3400-20.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
15.00 Germany factory orders in December n / a; 0,8% m / m, -1.8% m / m
19.00 Canada Business Index Ivey PMI January n / a; 53,2; 52,8
19.30 U.S. Crude Oil Stocks for the week 27.01-02.02 n / a; n / a; 5,9 million barrels.

Sergei Kostenko
 
* Recommendations listed in this article, can not serve as a basis for direct action.

U.S. dollar continues to fall...

The continuing sharp decline in the yen against the euro and the U.S. dollar amid reports of an earlier retirement of the current Prime Minister Shirakawa also supporting the growth tendency of investors to the risky game. Desire means the depreciation of the national currency to overcome deflation has already boosted the euro, but in the long term can be a negative phenomenon for the European economy, which still has not overcome all their problems and therefore a high rate of the euro in the long term can only hurt the European economy.

Meanwhile, investors await tomorrow's ECB meeting, which did not seem to become concerned about the sharp rise in the euro, but in spite of these assumptions, perhaps tomorrow, ECB President Draghi M. and finally will break the silence and would speak on this. It is likely he may follow the previously spoken words of European officials who have displayed a high rate of dissatisfaction with the euro, especially against the yen and the U.S. dollar.

As for the overall picture of the market there are mixed trading. Australian dollar continues to fall due to the weak economy. Yen sharply falls against the U.S. dollar and the euro. The euro is almost froze in anticipation of tomorrow's decision on monetary policy the ECB.
                                                                                                                                                                               
Events today:
Moscow time
15.00 Germany factory orders in December n / a; 0,8% m / m, -1.8% m / m
19.00 Canada Business Index Ivey PMI January n / a; 53,2; 52,8
19.30 U.S. Crude Oil Stocks for the week 27.01-02.02 n / a; n / a; 5,9 million barrels.

Sergei Kostenko

* Recommendations listed in this article, can not serve as a basis for direct action.
 

European problems in the focus of the market again  ...
                
European shares ended trading on Monday in the red zone against the background of the political crisis in Spain, arose because of allegations of corruption and instability in the Italian banking sector. Under strong pressure were shares of banking companies. UniCredit shares collapsed by 8.3%, Banco Santander at 5.7%, Intesa Sanpaolo on., 4%, BBVA 4.2%. An additional negative factor was the weak data on orders in the U.S. industry, published on Monday, which aggravated the negative investor sentiment. Sanofi shares of the French company in terms of capitalization, fell in price by 3.4%.
Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 1.49%, to close at 283.90 points.
Index DJ EURO STOXX BANK up to previous trading closed at 117.18 (-4.99%).

Major European indexes at the close of the previous trading session: FTSE 100 - 6,246.84 (-0.58%); DAX 30 - 7,638.23 (-2.49%); CAC 40 - 3,659.91 (-3.01%). Futures morning before the opening of trading in Europe FTSE 100 IDX - 6212.80 (+0.05%); DAX INDEX - 7642.00 (+0.12%); CAC40 - 658.80 (-0.01%). Trading in Europe will open mostly in the green zone.
 
European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300, closed on Monday at 1,150.91 (-1.47%).

Before the opening of the European session US yield on 10-year T-Note is 1.96% (+0.010 NCP), the 10-year German Government Bonds is 1.61% (-0.060 NCP), and the 10-year UK Government Bonds is 2.08% (-0.020 NCP).

Oil futures morning before the opening of the European trading session, continue to decline from-zi aggravated European problems.
Brent Oil (ICE) in morning electronic trading before the opening of Europe at 115.13 (-0.41%), and U.S. crude oil WTI (ICE) 96.00 (-0.18%).
Gold futures morning at 1,677.10 (+0.05%), quotes of copper at
376.30 (-0.13%).
Commodity Index CRB Index for the previous trading day was 302.91 (-0.71%).
 
In the currency market the dollar is supported by negative news from Spain and Italy. Against the background of dollar oversold from a technical point of view, and European news short term the dollar will be supported.
Futures on the dollar index, which reflects the value of the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, is 79.78 (+0.27%).
     
Prediction of the day:
EURUSD pair today seems to continue to be adjusted down to the level of 1.3400-20.
 
Events today:
Moscow time
13.00 Eurozone Final data on the index of business activity in the services sector in January n / a; 48,3; 48,3
13.30 UK index of business activity in the services sector in January n / a; 49,8; 48,9
14.00 Eurozone retail sales in December n / a; -0,5% m / m and 0.1% m / m
17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Duke Speech
19.00 U.S. ISM index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector in January n / a; 55,2; 56,1
19.00 U.S. index of business optimism IBD / TIPP February n / a; 46,1; 46,5
21.00 Speech Switzerland SNB board member Zurbrugga

Sergei Kostenko
 
* Recommendations listed in this article, can not serve as a basis for direct action.