Analytic reviews

EURUSD

The pair continues to move in a narrow range. Its grows is being restrained as ECB stimulus program expansion is expected and the fall is not happening because of the weakness of US Dollar due to unlikeness of the rate hikes in the nearest future.

The price is higher than the middle Bollinger band and is lower than SMA 5, but higher than SAM14. RSI index is higher than 50% level and steadily decreases. Stoch is leaving oversold zone.

Trading recommendations: The pair moves forming ascending “flag” figure. If the price falls lover than the middle Bollinger band and pass 1.1220 level, then there is a change that it will reach 1.1175 level.

EURUSD

The pair consolidates awaiting the Mario Draghi speech (president of ECB). New   announcements regarding the ECB stimulus program will put a certain level of pressure on the pair and cause the increase of risk appetite and in buying shares of European companies which usually causes a negative effect on Euro.

The price is higher than the middle Bollinger band and higher than SMA 5 but lower than SMA 14. RSI index is lower than 50% level and is rising. Stoch is in oversold zone.

Trading Recommendations: Sell the pair if 1.1170 level is passed with local target of 1.1100-05

EURUSD

The pair is trying to grow using US Dollar weakness. The risk that ECB stimulus program is going to be expanded is restraining the growth and keeps USD from giving up its positions. It may keep consolidating on this level for quite some time.

The price is higher than the middle Bollinger band and higher than SMA 5 and SMA 14. RSI index is higher than 50% level and is on the rise. Stoch is not very informative as of now.

Trading recommendations: Buy the pair if 1.1265 level is passed with a probable target of 1.1325. But keep in mind that a fall lower than 1.1240-45 can lead to a further downside movement the lowest trend level of 1.1170. 

EURUSD

The pair is experiencing a slight fall awaiting Non-Farm data release. Further fall is possible if the data is highly positive. If not, Euro could strengthen its positions against US Dollar.

The price is lower than the middle Bollinger band, lower than SMA 4 and SMA 14. RSI index is lower than 50% level and keeps going down. Stoch is in reversed position and indicates a stronger falling tendency.

Trading recommendations: Sell the pair if we hear the good news from the US after 1.1135 level is reached with local target of 1.110, keeping in mind that it could possibly fall reaching 1.100-10 levels.

EURUSD
The pair continues to range between 1.1100 and 1.1295. It is possible that it may rise up to 1.1295 due to oversold conditions. We assume that it is better to sell the pair on the rise when this level is reached. 
The price is lower than the middle Bollinger band and lower than SMA 5 and SMA 14. RSI index is lower than 50% level and signals that the price may go up. Stoch is in oversold zone.
Trading recommendations: Sell the pair while it is rising from 1.1290 with local target of 1.1000-10.

ECB may resort to new incentives

The economicсof the euro zone are still experiencing major problems: there are high unemployment, weak business activity, low production figures and low consumer price inflation, which is in no hurry to grow up and reflects the uncertainty of the population in the future.

From members of the ECB following statements about, that the risk of deflation, though small, but real, and hence there is a high likelihood that the European Central Bank may go the way of incentives that were in the United States. The probability of this in recent days has grown considerably, because quite a large number of members of the ECB say about this. So the head of the Central Bank of Slovakia Jozef Makuch said that: few leaders are willing to accept the ECB non-standard measures to prevent deflation. And the head of the Central Bank of Spain Luis Maria Linde said yesterday that: if you ask me, I would say that the risk of inflation is low, but it is still there; there is a possibility of deflation.

Such attitudes among members of the ECB are putting pressure on the euro, and amid positive data from the U.S. will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the single currency.​

The EUR/USD continues its decline

It seems, correlation of forces gradually leaning toward US dollar. After decision  of Federal Reserve tocontinue to reduce incentives, and statements by President Yellen about the likelihood of rate hike in the first half of 2015, relation to the dollar has changed, because there was certainty in this matter. If previously the market could only guess, when this can occur, it appeared landmarks begin to clarify the situation.

Against this background euro remains under pressure and in overcoming the pair EUR USD 1.3750 level it has the potential to continue its decline to 1.3700. If today PMI statistic of Eurozone and Federal Reserve will be no better than forecast, it will lead to a local reduction of the pair. If they prove to be worse than forecast, it will undoubtedly strengthen the downward trend pairs.​

Dollar will continue to strengthen

Federal Reserve decided to continue reducing of incentives and Janet Yellen told about prospects for raising the key interest in next year to a level of 1.0%. This has changed the balance of power on the foreign exchange market and not only on him. Apparently, market finally began to understand that temporary weakness of the dollar is about to end and his incremental gain is near at hand.

The weakest link in this situation is the single currency, and Yen. Single currency will remain under pressure, because economic situation in Eurozone remains quite unstable and one can hardly expect a tightening of monetary policy from ECB in future. And from the Bank of Japan should expect possibility of increasing the incentives, that will adversely affect the Japanese yen.

Given the mood of the market can be expected, that EURUSD pair continue to decline to 1.3700, while USDJPY grows up to 102.70. ​

EURUSD will continue to decrease

US dollar rapidly increased as US Federal Reserve announced about the further asset buyout program reduction for another $10bl and that already in the beginning of 2015 the increase of refinance rate is expected. What is more, head of Federal Reserve Janet Yellen did not mention anything about the unemployment rate and about monetary policy tightening due to that. At the moment this level equals to 6,5%. Now rate equals to 6,7% which is only 0,2% higher that the threshold level.

EURUSD pair, which has been increasing for the last six weeks, significantly decreased. At the moment it is being traded at 1,3845 and looks like that after the correction it will continue to decrease. 1,3770 is expected to be the next local level and in case of a breakthrough it will open the way to 1,3700-05.

Semen Kamensky​

Euro is overbought and can be decreased

Consumer inflation can have a massive impact on European currency today. Last month this led to rapid EUR increase, as it was supported by ECB decision to keep the same monetary policy. But last week Mario Draghi announced his concern regarding EUR growth saying that the Euro Zone economy struggles because of that. It had a massive impact on Euro currency. So in case consumer inflation will remain on the same level or will decrease rapid EUR drop against USD is expected.

What is more, traders believe that US Federal Reserve on the next meeting this week will take the decision to continue further stimulus reduction for another $10bl  ($55bl in total). And this will be another positive sign for USD

Semen Kamensky​