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Analisis berdasarkan tingkat angka bulat, channel harga, dan Elliot Wave yang dimodifikasi

Pergerakan keseluruhan dari pasangan mata uang ini adalah ke bawah. Rentang putaran antara tingkat 0.6450 aktif menahan pembeli. Divergensi bearish terbentuk pada indikator Awesome Oscillator. Desain level naik H4 mungkin adalah gelombang terpotong (C) dari desain level bawah D2.

Rekomendasi perdagangan:

Jual pada pembentukan struktur ke bawah, di mana gelombang (aS) memecah saluran miring naik tingkat desain menyelesaikannya dengan pengembangan H4 + (cS) = pending order jual pada istirahat dari titik bawah (AU)
 – pada pembentukan struktur ke bawah.
Stop Loss di titik 0,6450.
Level target – 0,6360; 0,6282.

When buying an option against the trend, it is necessary to confirm other technical analysis tools – the presence of divergence, reversal candlestick patterns. Buy against the trend strictly on the retest level! Buying an option before publishing important economic news is considered risky. The expiration time depends on the strength of the level and confirmation by additional tools of technical and fundamental analysis.

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted lower during the Asian session to witness the bounce for the fifth session in seven sessions from the highest since April 10, 2013 amid the positive stability of the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected today Thursday by the Eurozone economies and the US largest economy in the world and in the wake of recent trade developments between Washington and Beijing.

At 04:47 am GMT, gold futures for December delivery fell 0.15% to a low of 1488.98 and then to rise and trade at $ 1496.51 an ounce compared to the opening at 1469.56 an ounce, amid the dollar index rose 0.01% to 98.64 Compared to the opening at 98.63.

Markets for the euro zone's largest economy, Germany, are awaiting the release of the final CPI reading, which may reflect a steady contraction of 0.2%, unchanged from the prior initial reading for August and against 0.5% growth in July, before the final reading is revealed. The index is similar to France, the second largest economy in the region, which could reflect a stable growth of 0.5% versus a contraction of 0.2% in July.

This comes before the third largest economy in the region is witnessing the release of the Unemployment Rate, which may reflect a decline to 10.0% vs. 10.4% in the first quarter, and before the release of the seasonally adjusted reading of the industrial production index for the euro area as a whole, which may reflect a decline in the decline to 0.1% The annual reading of the same index may show that the decline narrowed to 1.3% from 2.6%.

Up to the ECB meeting and the press conference of ECB Governor Mario Draghi from which ECB monetary policymakers are expected to introduce short-term benchmark interest rates to a negative level and announce new expansionary measures and likely resumed quantitative easing policies to support The pace of growth of the eurozone economies.

Otherwise, investors are awaiting the US economy to reveal inflation data with the release of the CPI reading which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.1% vs. 0.3% in July, and the core reading of the same index may also show growth slowed to 0.2% vs. 0.3%. While the annual reading of the same index may show the stability of growth at 1.8%, and the core annual reading of the same index may reflect the acceleration of growth to 2.3% vs. 2.2%.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the index of claims for the past week on September 7, which may reflect a decrease of 2 thousand applications to 215 thousand applications compared to 217 thousand tabs the previous weekly reading, while the reading of the claims application index may show investors for the past week at the end of Last August, an increase of 13 thousand applications to 1,675 thousand applications compared to 1,662 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading.

US President Donald Trump postponed a $ 250 billion tariff increase on Chinese goods from 25 percent to 30 percent for nearly two weeks as a "goodwill gesture" until October 15. To enter into force early next month, announcing it through his Twitter through his official Twitter account.

"At the request of Chinese Vice Premier Liu Hu, and given the fact that the People's Republic of China will celebrate its 70th anniversary on October 1, they agreed, as a goodwill gesture, to carry forward the tariff increase on goods," Trump said. Worth $ 250 billion, from October 1st to October 15th. "

This came hours after the Chinese Ministry of Finance announced on Wednesday that 16 categories of US products will be exempted from 25% tariffs, which have been applied since last year, including those of animal feed and some oils. The customs tariffs will start from September 17 for a year to expire on September 16, 2020.

These trade developments have in some way stimulated investors' appetite for risk and raised hopes of resolving trade disputes between the world's two largest economies ahead of the upcoming US-China trade talks in Washington early next month. Some observers of the trade war between the two sides and analysts of the conflict The existing trade remains skeptical that the two sides have reached a trade agreement in that round of trade talks.

Otherwise, US President Trump renewed his criticism yesterday to the Federal Reserve and its governor, Jerome Powell, and demanded a Fed rate cut of "zero or less," less than a week before the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, which is expected To reveal the expectations of the members of the Committee on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold carried out a retest of the previously broken support that appears in the picture and keeps its stability below it, accompanied by the emergence of a negative signal through Stochastic, waiting to stimulate the price to resume the bearish bias during the coming sessions, noting that our next target is at 1480.00, which represents a break The key to extend the bearish wave to reach 1450.00.

Keep in mind that a break of 1498.00 will stop the expected decline and push the price to resume the bullish main trend again.

Expected trading range for today is between 1477.00 support and 1500.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

The single currency of the European Union fluctuated in a narrow and bullish range during the Asian session to witness the bounce of the fourth session in eight sessions from the lowest since May 15, 2017 against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the economies of the region The euro and the US economy are the largest in the world.

At 05:53 AM GMT, the EURUSD rose 0.03% to 1.1013 levels from the opening at 1.1010, after hitting a session high of 1.1015 and a low of 1.1008.

Markets for the euro zone's largest economy, Germany, are awaiting the release of the final CPI reading, which may reflect a steady contraction of 0.2%, unchanged from the prior initial reading for August and against 0.5% growth in July, before the final reading is revealed. The index is similar to France, the second largest economy in the region, which could reflect a stable growth of 0.5% versus a contraction of 0.2% in July.

This comes before the third largest economy in the region is witnessing the release of the Unemployment Rate, which may reflect a decline to 10.0% vs. 10.4% in the first quarter, and before the release of the seasonally adjusted reading of the industrial production index for the euro area as a whole, which may reflect a decline in the decline to 0.1% The annual reading of the same index may show that the decline narrowed to 1.3% from 2.6%.

Up to the ECB meeting and the press conference of ECB Governor Mario Draghi from which ECB monetary policymakers are expected to introduce short-term benchmark interest rates to a negative level and announce new expansionary measures and likely resumed quantitative easing policies to support The pace of growth of the eurozone economies.

On the other hand, investors are waiting for the US economy to release inflation data with the release of the CPI reading which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.1% vs. 0.3% in July, and the core reading of the same index may show a slowdown in growth to 0.2% vs. 0.3%. While the annual reading of the same index may show the stability of growth at 1.8%, and the core annual reading of the same index may reflect the acceleration of growth to 2.3% vs. 2.2%.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the index of claims for the past week on September 7, which may reflect a decrease of 2 thousand applications to 215 thousand applications compared to 217 thousand tabs the previous weekly reading, while the reading of the claims application index may show investors for the past week at the end of Last August, an increase of 13 thousand applications to 1,675 thousand applications compared to 1,662 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading.

Otherwise, yesterday, US President Donald Trump renewed his criticism of the Federal Reserve and its governor Jerome Powell and demanded a “zero or less” rate cut, less than a week before the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. To reveal the expectations of the members of the Committee on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Technical Analysis

EUR / USD is trading above 1.1005, which holds our expectations for the bullish intraday direction, which aims to test the resistance of the descending channel around 1.1095 before returning to resume the main bearish trend again.

The breach of the mentioned resistance will extend the bullish wave to target 1.1180, while a break of 1.1005 will stop the expected rally and pressure the price to head towards 1.0857 mainly.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0950 support and 1.1100 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Temporarily bullish.

Cisco rose after 46.30 support stood against the price and prevented it from falling to rebound upwards and breach the resistance of 49.16.

Moving Average 20 is below the price thus forming a support level while SMA 50 is still moving above the price and forming a resistance level.

Stochastic is moving within the overbought zone on a sideways path within this zone, so staying within the overbought zone will push the price up further and test resistance 51.28.

The general trend is to the upside.

The stock is trading in a flat in the range of its lower limit. The Stochastic Oscillator indicator shows the price in the oversold zone. Resistance level 136.16 is holding back buyers.

Trading recommendations:

Buy above 136.16.

Stop Loss — 134.50.

Target levels — 139.20; 141.30.

AUDUSD continues to fluctuate at the resistance of the falling channel located at 0.6885, and the price is still stuck between the trend confirmation levels of the mentioned resistance and support at 0.6830, which makes us continue to remain neutral until the price confirms that it has crossed one of these levels.

The contradiction between the positive SMA 50 and the negative stochastic provides another reason for neutrality, noting that a break above 0.6885 will push the price for further gains and head towards 0.7020 areas in the near term, while a break of support will press the price to resume the bearish trend within the main descending channel, heading towards 0.6720 as the first major station.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6830 support and 0.6920 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Neutral.

Analysis based on round-number levels, price channels and modified Elliot Waves

The overall movement of the currency pair is downward. The range of the medium round level 0.6450 is actively holding back buyers. Bearish divergence formed on the Awesome Oscillator. The level H4 rising pattern is truncated and is probably the B wave of the D2 level downward pattern.

Trading recommendations:

Sell as a downward structure, where the wave (aS) breaks the sloping channel of the level H4 rising pattern while completing it + formation of (rS) = pending sell order at the break of the lower point (aC) as a downward pattern is forming.

Stop Loss Is 0.6450.

Target levels – 0.6360; 0.6282.

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EURUSD

Today, the market focuses on the ECB's monetary policy decision. If the bank does not take any measures to support the European economy or if the measures are minor, the euro will be supported. Conversely, if broad stimulus measures are taken, the pair will be expected to drop.

The price is below the middle Bollinger band, above SMA 5, but below SMA 14. RSI is below the level of 50% and growing smoothly. Stoch are also growing.

Trade recommendations:

Wait for the ECB decision. A price above 1.1040 may lead to an increase of the pair to 1.1115. Conversely, the pair's decline below the level of 1.0985 may become the basis for its drop to 1.0930.

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to decline during the Asian session to witness the rebound for the third session from its highest since late July against the US dollar following the developments and economic data followed by the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected Wednesday by the US economy Economy in the world.

At 03:22 am GMT the AUDUSD fell 0.03% to 0.6859 levels from the opening levels of 0.6861, after the pair reached its lowest level during the session at 0.6849, while achieving the highest at 0.6863.

The Australian WISPAC Consumer Confidence Index showed a 1.7% decline to 98.2 versus a 3.6% gain of 100.0 in August, hours after the Australian National Business Confidence Index showed. In the current situation, the breadth has shrunk to 1 versus 4 and 3 respectively in July.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy to reveal the PPI reading, which is a preliminary indicator of inflationary pressures which may reflect the acceleration of stability at zero levels against the growth of 0.2% in July, while the core reading of the same indicator may show the stability of growth at 0.2 The annualized reading of the same index may also show a stable growth of 1.7%.

In the same context, the core annual PPI reading may reflect a 2.2% vs. 2.1% advance in July, before we see the final release of the wholesale inventory index, which could show a stable growth of 0.2%, little changed from The initial reading for the month of July and against the stability at zero levels last June.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD has been able to reach our awaited target when the main descending channel is resisted, accompanied by clear overbought signs through Stochastic, which may press the price to resume the bearish main trend again.

On the other hand, we note that SMA 50 provides positive support for the price, forming a positive incentive that may contribute to breaching the resistance of the mentioned channel and open the way for further gains.

Therefore, we prefer to remain neutral until the price confirms the breach of the resistance of 0.6885 or the breach of the support of 0.6830, noting that a breach of this resistance will extend the bullish wave to reach 0.7020, while a break of support will press the price to resume the bearish trend, whose first target is located at 0.6730.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6830 support and 0.6920 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Neutral.