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Analysis based on round-number levels, price channels and modified Elliot Waves

The overall movement of the currency pair is downward. The N1 level upward pattern is truncated, and the Bearish divergence has formed on Awesome Oscillator. A breakout of 1.1060 level will result in a formation of a level M30 descending pattern within N8 level downward wave (C).

Trading recommendations:

Sell Below 1.1060.

Stop Loss-1.1110.

Target levels – 1.1015; 1.0930.

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to witness its fifth session rebound in eight sessions from the highest since April 10, 2013 and is preparing for its longest weekly loss rallies in thirteen months, ignoring the decline of the dollar index for the eighth session in Nine sessions from the highest since the highest since May 12, 2017 according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Friday by the US economy. The largest economy in the world.

Morning gold futures for December delivery rose 60% to trade at $ 1503.90 an ounce compared with the opening at 1497.43 an ounce, while the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 98.33 compared to the opening at 98.41.

Markets are now looking to the US economy to reveal a reading of retail sales, which accounts for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which may reflect a slowing pace of growth to 0.2% versus 0.7% last July. The core reading of the index slowed the pace of growth to 0.1% from 1.0% in July.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the import price index, which may show a decline of 0.5% versus a rise of 0.2% in July, while the annual reading of the same indicator may widen the decline to 2.0% against 1.8%, and before we see the release of wholesale inventories, which may It shows a rise of 0.3% against steady June zero levels.

As a result of the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, which may reflect an expansion to 90.4 vs. 89.9 last August, otherwise, US President Donald Trump yesterday continued his criticism of the Federal Reserve for interest on federal funds, particularly after the Bank deepened. The ECB has a negative deposit rate to -0.50% and its intention to reactivate the QE program later.

"They are trying, and are succeeding, to devalue the euro against an overly strong dollar, which is hurting US exports," the US president said Thursday, tweeting through his official Twitter account. They get money to borrow, while we pay interest! "

US President Trump on Tuesday called on the Federal Reserve and its governor, Jerome Powell, to cut interest rates on federal funds "to zero or less," less than a week before the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, which is expected to take place. To reveal the expectations of the members of the Committee on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

In another context, we also followed yesterday's remarks by US President Trump that he would like to sign a full trade agreement with Beijing, but he left the door open for a limited agreement, as he noted in his tweet to him that Beijing is expected to go to buy more US agricultural products in the coming period, which raised the hopes of markets to resolve trade disputes between the two largest economies in the world.

This came hours after US President Trump last Wednesday postponed the increase of customs duties on Chinese goods worth $ 250 billion from 25% to 30% for about two weeks as a "goodwill gesture", specifically until October 15, which was supposed to enter It will take effect early next month, announcing that then by tweeting it through his official Twitter account.

"At the request of Chinese Vice Premier Liu Hu, and in view of the fact that the People's Republic of China will celebrate its 70th anniversary on October 1, they agreed, as a goodwill gesture, to postpone the increase in tariffs," he said. Goods worth $ 250 billion, from October 1st to October 15th. "

The tweets came hours after the Chinese Ministry of Finance announced last Tuesday that 16 categories of US products would be excluded from 25 percent tariffs, which have been in effect since last year, including those for animals and some oils. Customs duties starting from September 17 for a year to expire on September 16 next year 2020.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold completed the formation of a bearish wedge pattern that appears in the picture, trading positively yesterday, and returns to fluctuation near the main rising trend line shown in the picture, accompanied by the arrival of stochastic to oversold areas.

Therefore, these factors encourage us to favor the bullish bias during the coming sessions, and the targets begin to confirm the breach of the 1508.00 barrier to open the way for the rally towards 1555.00 zones mainly, taking into consideration that the breach of 1485.00 will stop the expected rally and pressurize the price to start a short term corrective wave.

Expected trading range for today is between 1485.00 support and 1525.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to see a rebound from the highest since early August, when it tested the highest since late May, while still making its third weekly gain in a row from its lowest level in three years against The Japanese Yen is following the economic developments and data that followed from the Japanese economy and on the threshold of developments and economic data expected on Friday by the US economy.

At 06:32 AM GMT, the USDJPY fell 0.06% to 108.03 levels from the opening levels of 108.10, after hitting a session low of 108.02 and a six-week high of 108.26.

The Japanese economy, the third largest in the world and the third largest industrial country in the world, followed the release of the industrial sector data with the release of the final reading of industrial production which showed a steady decline of 1.3%, little changed from the previous reading in July. It is in line with expectations, against a 3.3% decline in June.

On the other hand, markets are looking ahead to the US economy, the largest economy in the world to reveal the reading of retail sales, which accounts for about half of consumer spending, which represents more than two thirds of US GDP, which may reflect the slowing pace of growth to 0.2% vs. 0.7% in July The core reading of the index may also show a slower pace of growth to 0.1% versus 1.0% in July.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the import price index, which may show a decline of 0.5% versus a rise of 0.2% in July, while the annual reading of the same indicator may widen the decline to 2.0% against 1.8%, and before we see the release of wholesale inventories, which may It shows a rise of 0.3% against steady June zero levels.

As a result of the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence index, which may reflect an expansion to 90.4 vs. 89.9 in August, otherwise, US President Donald Trump yesterday continued his criticism of the Federal Reserve for interest on federal funds, particularly after the central bank deepened. The Euro-Zone's negative deposit rate to -0.50% and its intention to reactivate the QE program later.

"They are trying, and are succeeding, to devalue the euro against an overly strong dollar, which is hurting US exports," the US president said Thursday, tweeting through his official Twitter account. They get money to borrow, while we pay interest! "

US President Trump on Tuesday called on the Federal Reserve and its governor, Jerome Powell, to cut interest rates on federal funds "to zero or less," less than a week before the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, which is expected to be disclosed. In his report, the members of the committee expected growth, inflation and unemployment rates in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY succeeded in reaching our first awaited target at 108.30, showing some slight bearish bias due to the negativity of stochastic, but it is getting sustained positive support from SMA 50, supporting the chances of breaching the mentioned level and opening the way for 109.30 as a next stop.

From here, we continue to favor the bullishness over the coming sessions, keeping in mind that a break of 107.70 could push the price to retest 106.70 areas before any new attempt to rise.

Expected trading range for today is between 107.70 support and 109.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.

The euro rose on Friday on the European market against a basket of global currencies, extending gains for the second day in a row against the US dollar, hitting its highest level in two weeks, for the second weekly gain in a row, after the decisions of the European Central Bank at the end of its regular meeting of monetary policy, which came Below market expectations especially the bond purchase program.

The euro rose against the dollar by about 0.2% to $ 1.1090, the highest since August 29, the opening price of the day at $ 1.1064, and recorded the lowest level at $ 1.1055.

Yesterday, the euro gained 0.5% against the dollar, its first gain in three days, following the ECB's decisions and Mario Draghi's comments.

In terms of trading this week, the euro has so far gained about 0.6% against the dollar, for the second consecutive weekly gain.

At the end of Thursday's monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its benchmark borrowing rates unchanged at zero record levels, cut its deposit rates by 10 basis points to minus 0.5%, and launched a new bond purchase program by about € 20 billion per month. Starting next November.

Most experts had predicted a 10 basis point cut in the deposit rate, but the asset purchase program was projecting a value of 30 billion euros per month for bond purchases starting in October.

ECB Governor Mario Draghi said members of the bank's executive board had agreed to re-launch the stimulus program to support the economy in the face of growing risks.

Draghi, whose mandate expires in late October, ruled out a recession in the euro economy soon, but stressed that risks were rising and pointed to a rate cut in response to continued weak inflation in Europe.

The decisions of the European Central Bank angered US President "Donald Trump" again the attack on the Federal Reserve "US Central" for not cutting interest rates more aggressively.

"They are trying and succeeding in depreciating the euro against the overly strong dollar, which is hurting US exports, while the Fed is doing nothing. They are getting money for deposits while we are paying interest," Trump said on Twitter.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD has managed to reach the resistance of the descending channel shown, and SMA 50 meets this resistance to add more strength to it, while Stochastic is reaching overbought areas now.

Therefore, these factors encourage us to expect a bearish rebound to resume trading within the mentioned descending channel, waiting for the target of 1.0857 mainly, taking into consideration that the breach of 1.1085 will lead the price to achieve additional gains up to 1.1180 before any new attempt to decline.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0960 support and 1.1120 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

AUDUSD continues to fluctuate at the resistance of the descending channel, and faces a contradiction between the positivity of the move above SMA 50 and the negativity of the stochastic, which makes us continue to remain neutral until we get a clearer signal for the next trend, which we will get by breaching 0.6885 resistance or breaking Support 0.6830.

The breach of the mentioned resistance will push the pair out of the descending channel and start a bullish correction that starts at 0.7020, while a break of support will press the price to continue the main bearish trend with the next target at 0.6670.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6830 support and 0.6920 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Neutral.

Amazon continues to move below the lower bound of the ascending channel it breached two weeks ago but is moving upwards towards 1885.01 resistance.

The Fibonacci retracement rate of 61.8% formed support for the price and pushed it higher.

The price action is above the 7-20 moving averages which turned into levels

Support him and push him to rise and test the resistance 1885.01.

Stochastic in a quiet side path after it was in the path therefore does not provide any new information.

The expected movement between 1664.45 support and 1885.00 resistance.

General direction of movement: Neutral.

The stock is trading within the upper range of the downward price channel. A breakout of the price pivot zone 120.40 will result in a breakout of the price channel. Awesome Oscillator shows a Bullish divergence, and Stochastic Oscillator shows exiting from the oversold zone.

Trading ideas:

Buy above 120.40.

Stop loss – 116.46

Target levels — 126.70; 129.00.

The overall movement of the currency pair is downward. The ascending design of the N4 level tested 50% of the descending design. The ascending construction is truncated, and the Bearish divergence formed on the Awesome Oscillator. The inclined channel of the ascending structure is punched. A descending construction is formed on the N1 level.

Trading recommendations:

Sell on the break of 0.6857.

Stop Loss –  0.6894.

Target levels – 0.6820 (moving averages zone – partial profit taking and moving to breakeven); 0.6750; 0.6700.

EURUSD

The pair recovered after the drop caused by the ECB's final decision on monetary policy. Most likely, such dynamics is explained by the anticipated next week monetary policy decision by the Fed which is also expected to shift towards softer policy.

The price is located at the upper Bollinger band line, it is above EMA 5 and EMA 13. RSI is above 50% and rising. Stoch is in the overbought area. 

Trade recommendations: 
If the pair goes above 1.1100, it may continue to 1.1165.

The US dollar rose during the Asian session to witness the bounce for the tenth session in fourteen sessions from the lowest since November 9, 2016, showing the highest since early August, when it tested the highest since late May against the Japanese yen following the developments and economic data It was followed by the Japanese economy and on the threshold of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the US economy.

At 06:14 am GMT, the USDJPY rose 0.17% to 108.00 levels from 107.82 opening levels, after the pair reached a six-week high of 108.17, while the session low at 107.78 .

The Japanese economy followed the release of inflation data with the release of the PPI, which is a preliminary indicator of inflationary pressures that showed a contraction of 0.3% against steady at zero levels last July, worse than expectations for a 0.2% contraction. The annual contraction index widened to 0.9% vs. 0.6%, also worse than expectations for a 0.8% contraction.

This came with the release of machinery orders which showed a 6.6% decline versus a 13.9% rise in July, beating expectations for a 9.0% decline, while the annualized reading showed a slowdown in growth to 0.3% vs. 12.5%. The Tertiary Industrial Index showed a gain of 0.1% versus a decline of 0.1% in June, missing expectations for a 0.3% decline.

On the other hand, investors are waiting for the US economy to release inflation data with the release of the CPI reading which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.1% vs. 0.3% in July, and the core reading of the same index may show a slowdown in growth to 0.2% vs. 0.3%. While the annual reading of the same index may show the stability of growth at 1.8%, and the core annual reading of the same index may reflect the acceleration of growth to 2.3% vs. 2.2%.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the index of claims for the past week on September 7, which may reflect a decrease of 2 thousand applications to 215 thousand applications compared to 217 thousand tabs the previous weekly reading, while the reading of the claims application index may show investors for the past week at the end of August increased by 13K to 1,675K compared to 1,662K in the previous weekly reading.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY is resuming its positive trading with the opening today to reach the first awaited target at 108.30, reinforcing expectations for further gains in the coming sessions, supported by SMA 50, with a reminder that breaching the mentioned level will extend the bullish wave to 109.30.

Thus, a positive scenario remains likely unless 106.70 is broken and holds below it.

Expected trading range for today is between 107.70 support and 109.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.