Analytic reviews

The Australian dollar fell during the Asian session to see its rebound for the third session from its highest since late July against the US dollar following the developments and economic data followed by the Australian economy, which included the disclosure of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting held earlier this month and on the eve of developments The economic data expected on Tuesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 03:03 AM GMT, the AUDUSD retreated 0.31% to 0.6844 levels, compared with opening levels at 0.6865, after the pair reached its lowest level during the session at 0.6841, while the highest level at 0.6870.

The RBA unveiled the minutes of its September 3 meeting, during which the RBA monetary policy makers decided to hold short-term interest rates at an all-time low for the second consecutive meeting at 1.00%, which was expected. By market analysts back then.

We would like to note that the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy makers have expressed in their record that the upward trend in wage growth appears to have stalled and that risks to the global outlook are still tilted to the downside, indicating that it will consider further easing of monetary policy if necessary. , While emphasizing that it is reasonable to expect an "extended period" of low interest rates to achieve employment and inflation targets.

This came in conjunction with the release of the Australian housing market data with the release of the house price index, which showed a decline in the decline to 0.7% compared to 3.0% in the first quarter of last year, exceeding expectations that the decline to decline to 1.0%, while the annual reading of the same index showed the stability of the decline At 7.4%, little changed from the previous annual reading of the first quarter, also surpassing expectations for a widening decline to 7.4%.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy, the largest industrial countries in the world, the release of the industrial production index, which may show a growth of 0.2% versus a decline of 0.2% in July, while the reading of the energy utilization rate may show that growth accelerated to 77.6% against 77.5%, This is before we see the release of the housing market data with the release of the housing index by the National Association of Home Builders which may reflect a stable at 66 during September.

Markets are also looking to kick off the FOMC meeting later today and Wednesday in Washington, which is expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00% simultaneously. With the disclosure of the expectations of members of the Committee on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will hold a press conference tomorrow, half an hour after the FOMC meeting, which has been widely criticized by US President Donald Trump. Powell cut interest rates "to zero or less."

Technical Analysis 

AUDUSD found strong resistance at 0.6885, bouncing down and signaling a resumption of the downtrend within the descending main channel shown, supported by negative signals from Stochastic.

Therefore, we expect to see further declines in the coming sessions unless 0.6885 is breached and hold above it, noting that our next main target is at 0.6670.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6760 support and 0.6885 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

AUDUSD

The pair dropped amid the publication of the minutes of the RBA meeting on monetary policy. The document showed the probability of lowering interest rates by the bank to support economic growth in the country. This may put limited pressure on the pair.

The price is below the lower Bollinger band, below SMA 5 and SMA 14. RSI is below the level of 50% and indicates a weakening of the price decline. Stoch are in the oversold zone.

Trade recommendations:

Sell the pair if it stays below 0.6840 with a local target of 0.6800.

Sber Bank reached 235.96 resistance which temporarily halted the bullish movement after the stock managed to breach the resistance at SMA 50 and stabilize above it.

The price is moving above the 7-20-50 moving averages that form support levels.

Stochastic is within the overbought zone on an uptrend and the continuation of movement within the region will stimulate the price to rise further.

Expected movement between 210.8 support and 244.06 resistance.

The general trend is to the upside.

The US dollar rose during the Asian session to witness the rebound of the eleventh session in sixteen sessions from the lowest since November 9 of 2016 against the Japanese yen amid the lack of economic data earlier this week by the Japanese economy, the world's third largest economy on the cusp of Economic developments and data expected on Monday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 06:23 am GMT, the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.20% to 107.85 levels compared to the opening levels at 107.64, after the pair reached its highest level during the session at 107.92, while the lowest level at 107.46, knowing The pair started this week on a bearish price gap after closing last week at 108.09 levels.

Investors are currently awaiting the US economy, the world's largest industrialized countries, on the release of the New York manufacturing index, which may show the contraction widened to 4.1 from 4.8 in August. This comes just hours before Tuesday's release of the industrial production index which may show a rise of 0.2% against It slipped 0.2% in July, while the Energy Expenditure Rate reading may reflect accelerating growth to 77.6% vs. 77.5%.

Markets are also looking ahead to the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington, which is expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. On the expectations of members of the Committee on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is due to hold a press conference next Wednesday, half an hour after the FOMC meeting, which has been widely criticized by US President Donald Trump for demanding the Fed. And Powell's governorate cut interest rates "to zero or less."

Otherwise, the Japanese yen drew support earlier this week from the recent geopolitical strikes from last weekend's drone attacks on oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, OPEC and third. The world's largest oil producer and OPEC's largest, carried out by the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

President Trump said Sunday that the United States was "locked and loaded based on the investigation" that Iran had launched a major Saudi oil attack, and several administration officials also expressed yesterday that they had strong evidence that Iran was behind the attack. It is not the Houthis who claimed responsibility last Saturday, which prompted investors to divert liquidity to safe havens, including the Japanese yen.

Technical Analysis

The USDJPY opened lower today to test support for the rising channel shown in the picture, and is starting to rise now, where it gets positive support from SMA 50, while Stochastic is heading towards oversold areas.

Therefore, the bullish scenario will remain likely for the coming period, with a break of 108.30 pushing the price to 109.30 as the next stop, while the price needs to hold above 106.70 to sustain the expected rally.

Expected trading range for today is between 107.20 support and 108.70 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to witness the bounce of the sixth session in nine sessions from the highest since April 10, 2013 amid the positive stability of the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them following the developments and economic data that followed from the Chinese economy The world's largest consumer of metals is on the cusp of economic developments and data expected on Monday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 04:59 AM GMT gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3% to trade at $ 1503.86 an ounce compared with the opening at 1500.52 an ounce, amid the US dollar index rose 0.04% to 98.16 compared to the opening at 98.12.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China revealed the annualized retail sales figure which showed growth slowed to 7.5% vs. 7.6% in the prior year of July, contrary to expectations for an acceleration of growth to 7.9%. Growth to 4.4% vs. 4.8%, also worse than expectations at 5.2%, while the unemployment rate showed a decline to 5.2% vs. 5.3%.

Industrial production data for Asia's largest economy, the world's second largest economy and the world's second-largest industrialized country showed the slowest pace of growth in more than 17 years in August, following the worsening trade war between the world's two largest economies. It is now more than a year after the US Department of Trade Protectionism pursued with many international countries, especially China.

However, early this week, banks' reserve requirements by the People's Bank of China (CBB), announced earlier this month, came into effect. The mandatory reserve ratio for banks has been reduced by 50 basis points, and some eligible banks have been reduced. By 100 basis points, it is also planned to provide liquidity of 800 billion yuan, equivalent to $ 113 billion in the Chinese economy.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy, the largest industrial countries in the world, the release of the New York manufacturing index, which may show the contraction widened to 4.1 from 4.8 in August, and comes hours before the release of the industrial production index tomorrow, which may show a rise 0.2% versus a 0.2% decline in July, while the Energy Exploit Rate reading may reflect an acceleration of growth to 77.6% versus 77.5%.

Markets are also looking ahead to the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington, which is expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. On the expectations of members of the Committee on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is due to hold a press conference next Wednesday, half an hour after the FOMC meeting, which has been widely criticized by US President Donald Trump for demanding the Fed. And Powell's governorate cut interest rates "to zero or less."

Otherwise, gold futures benefited earlier this week from the recent geopolitical strikes from last weekend's drone attacks on oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, and OPEC. The world's third-largest oil producer and OPEC's largest, carried out by the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

President Trump said Sunday that the United States was "locked and loaded based on an investigation" that Iran had launched a major Saudi oil attack, and several US administration officials also expressed yesterday that they had strong evidence that Iran was behind the attack. It is not the Houthi rebels in Yemen who claimed responsibility last Saturday, prompting investors to divert liquidity to safe havens.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold has tested the bullish trend line and maintains its stability above it, starting today with a bullish slope to move around SMA 50, which keeps the bullish scenario valid and active for the next period, waiting for breaching 1524.00 to facilitate the task of heading towards 1555.00 which is our next main target.

Stochastic supports our positive expectations, which require stability above 1485.00.

Expected trading range for today is between 1495.00 support and 1525.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.

The single currency of the European Union fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to decline during the Asian session to witness a rebound for the second session from its highest since August 27 against the US dollar amid the lack of economic data earlier this week by the euro-zone economies and on the eve of developments and data The US economy is expected to be the largest in the world.

At 05:47 am GMT the EURUSD fell 0.04% to 1.1069 levels from the opening at 1.1075, after the pair reached a session high of 1.1075, while a low of 1.1067.

Investors are currently awaiting the US economy, the world's largest industrialized countries, on the release of the New York manufacturing index, which may show the contraction widened to 4.1 from 4.8 in August. This comes just hours before Tuesday's release of the industrial production index which may show a rise of 0.2% against It slipped 0.2% in July, while the Energy Expenditure Rate reading may reflect accelerating growth to 77.6% vs. 77.5%.

Markets are also looking ahead to the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington, which is expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. On the expectations of members of the Committee on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is due to hold a press conference next Wednesday, half an hour after the FOMC meeting, which has been widely criticized by US President Donald Trump for demanding the Fed. And Powell's governorate cut interest rates "to zero or less."

Technical Analysis

EUR / USD continues to fluctuate around the resistance of the descending channel and hold it below it. Note that SMA 50 meets this resistance to add more strength to it, while Stochastic is floating in overbought areas.

Therefore, we believe that chances are available to trade negatively in the coming sessions, waiting for heading towards 1.0857 as the next major stop, noting that exceeding the current resistance will push the price to test the 1.1180 level before any new attempt to decline.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0960 support and 1.1120 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow, bearish range during the Asian session against the US dollar amid the lack of economic data earlier this week by the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Monday by the US economy, the world's largest economy.

At 02:35 AM GMT, the AUDUSD fell 0.15% to 0.6869 levels, compared to the opening levels of 0.6880, after the pair reached its lowest level during the session at 0.6857, while achieving the highest at 0.6883.

Markets are looking ahead Tuesday for the Reserve Bank of Australia to release the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's September 3 meeting, during which RBA monetary policy makers agreed to hold short-term interest rates at an all-time low for the second consecutive meeting at 1.00. Which was expected by market analysts at the time.

It is noteworthy that the minutes of the previous RBA meeting mentioned that it is reasonable to expect an "extended period" of low interest rates, while stating that the RBA monetary policy makers reviewed during the previous meeting the experience of developed countries with unconventional monetary policy. The measures are likely to be more effective than individual steps.

The monetary policy statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia's previous meeting earlier last month also indicated that policymakers believed core inflation could reach 1.5% by December, before growth accelerates to 1.75% by the end of next year. 2% by the middle and end of 2021, amid the signal at the time that the near-term risks to economic growth are more negative.

Earlier last month, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe testified before the House of Representatives in Canberra that the Reserve Bank of Australia was ready to expand interest rate cuts if needed to support the labor market and stimulate inflation. Interest rate twice in quick succession, we thought it appropriate to wait and assess the consequences of monetary easing.

RBA Governor Lowe also said on August 9 that it is reasonable to expect a prolonged period of low interest rates in Australia, explaining at the time that it is unlikely but likely to move to a minimum of zero interest rates. He hopes that this can be avoided, although he is prepared to use exceptional monetary policy if justified.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy, the largest industrial countries in the world, the release of the New York manufacturing index, which may show the contraction widened to 4.1 from 4.8 in August, and comes hours before the release of the industrial production index tomorrow, which may show a rise 0.2% versus a 0.2% decline in July, while the Energy Exploit Rate reading may reflect an acceleration of growth to 77.6% versus 77.5%.

Markets are also looking ahead to the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington, which is expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. On the expectations of members of the Committee on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is due to hold a press conference next Wednesday, half an hour after the FOMC meeting, which has been widely criticized by US President Donald Trump for demanding the Fed. And Powell's governorate cut interest rates "to zero or less."

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD continues to fluctuate at the resistance of the descending channel, and the price remains stuck between the trend keys of 0.6830 support and 0.6885 resistance, where the price needs to breach one of these levels to determine its next destination more precisely, thus maintaining our neutral stance so far.

The breach of the mentioned resistance will push the pair to achieve more positive targets reaching 0.7020, while breaking the support will put the price under negative pressure to resume trading inside the main descending channel, then heading towards 0.6670 initially.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6830 support and 0.6920 resistance

Expected trend for today: Neutral

When buying an option against the trend, it is necessary to confirm other technical analysis tools – the presence of divergence, reversal candlestick patterns. Buy against the trend strictly on the retest level! Buying an option before publishing important economic news is considered risky. The expiration time depends on the strength of the level and confirmation by additional tools of technical and fundamental analysis.

Global oil prices showed a sharp increase at the opening of trading on ICE in London amid a reduction in oil production in Saudi Arabia due to drone attacks on Saudi Aramco plants.

Earlier, along with oil, LUKOIL shares fell in price. The increase in the price of black gold increases the income of oil companies including LUKOILthat produces  2% of world oil production.

Consolidation above the mirror level of 5385.0 will provide an opportunity for further growth. The Stochastic Oscillator indicator signals an oversold stock.

Trading ideas:

Buy above 5385.0.

Stop Loss – 5325.0.

Target levels – 5331.0; 5786.0.

USDCAD

The pair is recovering from a drop amid the news about the attack on oil fields in Saudi Arabia, which caused a strong increase in crude oil prices by 10%. If this does not develop into a military conflict between Riyadh and Tehran, oil prices will drop and the pair will rise.

The price is above the middle Bollinger band, below SMA 5, but above SMA 14. RSI is above the level of 50% and turns up. Stoch is still declining.

Trading recommendations:

Buy the pair if it rises above the level of 1.3255 with a local target of 1.3300.