Analytic reviews

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow uptrend range during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the third consecutive session from the lowest since October 11 against the Japanese yen following the developments and economic data that followed from the Japanese economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Tuesday from Ahead of the US economy the largest in the world.

At 05:58 AM GMT, the USDJPY rose 0.17% to 108.77 levels from 108.58 opening levels, after hitting a session high of 108.83 and a low of 108.56.

The Japanese economy followed the release of the Bank of Japan's annual monetary base reading which showed that the pace of growth accelerated to 3.1% from 3.0% in September, contrary to expectations that the pace of growth slowed to 2.9%. The Japanese began to use this indicator as its main operational target for the monetary base chart since April of 2013.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the release of the US Trade Balance, which may reflect a narrowing of the deficit to $ 52.9 billion compared to $ 54.9 billion in August, ahead of the final reading of the US Markit Service Provider's Markit Index. Which may reflect a steady expansion of 51.0, little changed from the initial reading for October and versus 50.9 in September.

As for the ISM reading, which may show a widening of 53.5 vs. 52.6 in September, we should note that the service supply is important because the US service sector accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP. With the release of a statistical reading of jobs and turnover, which may reflect a rise to 7.06 million compared to 7.05 million in August.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY traded positively yesterday to breach 108.40 and settle above it, reactivating the bullish corrective scenario again, on its way to achieve positive targets starting at 109.33 and extending to 110.50 after breaching the previous level.

Therefore, a bullish bias is likely for today unless 108.40 levels are broken and then 108.15 remains intact.

Expected trading range for today is between 108.00 support and 109.50 resistance

Expected trend for today: Bullish

Google shares rose again to approach the 1289.76 level, the highest price in its history, which was achieved in April and last week as well, where the price will still move within the ascending channel.

The price is moving above the 20-7-50 moving averages that form support levels and press it to rise.

Stochastic is on an uptrend towards overbought area and will try to press the pair higher.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted lower during the Asian session amid the rise of the US dollar index, indicating a rebound for the third session of the lowest since August 9, when it tested the lowest since July 19 last, according to the inverse relationship between them On the eve of economic developments and data expected on Tuesday by the US economy and in the shadow of trade optimism between Washington and Beijing.

At 03:50 am GMT gold prices fell 0.59% to trade at $ 1,502.28 an ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,508.84 an ounce, with the US dollar index up 0.08% to 97.62 compared to the opening at 97.54.

Investors in the US economy are awaiting the release of the Trade Balance, which may reflect a narrowing of the deficit to $ 52.9 billion from $ 54.9 billion in August, ahead of the US Markit Institute's ISM final reading. It reflects the stability of the expansion at 51.0, little changed from the initial reading for October and against 50.9 in September.

As for the ISM reading, which may show a widening of 53.5 vs. 52.6 in September, we should note that the service supply is important because the US service sector accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP. With the release of a statistical reading of jobs and turnover, which may reflect a rise to 7.06 million compared to 7.05 million in August.

Otherwise, we have recently followed US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross that the first phase trade agreement between his country and China could be reached and that US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping signed the agreement this month in one of several locations, including Iowa, Alaska and Hawaii or somewhere in China, before announcing licenses for US companies to resume sales to Chinese Huawei.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow noted Friday that markets were waiting for a meeting between the US president and his Chinese counterpart, noting that recent official statements from China appeared to be more positive than in the past, adding that this was an indication of an agreement. The first phase of the agreement is complete. US tariffs on Chinese goods will remain.

White House economic adviser Kudlo said at the end of last week that the issue of forced technological transfer could be addressed during the second phase of the agreement, the comments came after the report, which addressed the Chinese officials announced their skepticism of a long-term trade agreement with the United States, despite their emphasis on Progress in the first phase talks.

It is worth mentioning that these developments, which reinforced optimism about the resolution of trade disputes between the United States and China after the trade war between the two parties, which exceeded its first year recently, has stimulated the appetite of risk among investors, which reflected positively on global stock indices, especially the US, which ended yesterday's trading on New record highs as liquidity is diverted from safe havens topped by gold.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold did not show any strong movement yesterday, moving near the 50 EMA, noting that the Stochastic is getting rid of its negative momentum and reaching overbought areas, while EMA50 continues to support the price from below.

Therefore, these factors support the chances of rebounding upwards to resume the expected bullish trend for the coming period, targeting 1535.00 levels and then 1555.00 as the next major stops, noting the importance of stability above 1489.00 to achieve the suggested targets.

Expected trading range for today is between 1490.00 support and 1525.00 resistance

Expected trend for today: Bullish

The single currency fluctuated in a narrow range against the dollar during the Asian session to witness a rebound for the fourth session from its highest since October 21, when it tested the highest since August 14 against the dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Tuesday before Eurozone economies are the largest in the world.

At 04:58 AM GMT, EUR / USD fell 0.04% to 1.1123 compared to the opening at 1.1128, after the pair reached its lowest level since October 30 at 1.1113, while the pair reached its highest level during trading The session was at 1.1131.

The euro zone's second-largest economy is looking ahead to last month's treasury budget, before Spain, the region's fourth-largest economy, saw the release of the Unemployment Change, which could reflect an acceleration in growth to 62.0K versus 13.9K in September. To reveal inflation data for the economies of the region as a whole, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is a preliminary indicator of inflationary pressures that may show 0.1% growth versus a 0.5% contraction in August.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the release of the US Trade Balance, which may reflect a narrowing of the deficit to $ 52.9 billion compared to $ 54.9 billion in August, ahead of the final reading of the US Markit Service Provider's Markit Index. Which may reflect a steady expansion of 51.0, little changed from the initial reading for October and versus 50.9 in September.

As for the ISM reading, which may show a widening of 53.5 vs. 52.6 in September, we should note that the service supply is important because the US service sector accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP. With the release of a statistical reading of jobs and turnover, which may reflect a rise to 7.06 million compared to 7.05 million in August.

Technical Analysis

EUR / USD continues to decline to reach the first pivotal support 1.1105, which warrants attention from the upcoming trading, as the continuation of negative pressure and breaking this level followed by a break of 1.1065 will push the price for a further bearish correction targeting 1.0995 areas initially.

So far, the bullish scenario remains valid unless the support levels mentioned above are broken, supported by oversold signs appearing through Stochastic, with the main targets expected starting at 1.1180 and extending to 1.1280 after breaching the previous level.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.1065 support and 1.1220 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.

The Australian dollar rose during the Asian session to witness the rebound to the sixteenth session in twenty-five sessions, its lowest since March 18, 2009 against the US dollar following the developments and economic data that followed the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Tuesday by the economy American largest economy in the world

The morning the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.26% to 0.6909 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6882, after the pair reached its highest level during the trading session at 0.6909, while the pair achieved the lowest at 0.6875,

Investors in the US economy are awaiting the release of the Trade Balance, which may reflect a narrowing of the deficit to $ 52.9 billion from $ 54.9 billion in August, ahead of the US Markit Institute's final ISM reading for the US. Expansion stabilized at 51.0, little changed from the initial reading for October and versus 50.9 in September.

As for the ISM reading, which may show a widening of 53.5 vs. 52.6 in September, we should note that the service supply is important because the US service sector accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP. With the release of a statistical reading of jobs and turnover, which may reflect a rise to 7.06 million compared to 7.05 million in August.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD continues to fluctuate around 0.6895, and as long as the price is above this level, our bullish outlook will remain intact for the next period, awaiting resumption of the bullish bias affected by the previously completed double bottom pattern, reminding that our main targets start at 0.7015.

Keep in mind that a break of 0.6895 is a negative factor that will press the price to test 0.6820 areas and may extend to 0.6755 before any new attempt to rise.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6870 support and 0.6980 resistance

Expected trend for today: Bullish

The pivot zone 279.00 held back buyers. An ascending truncated structure has formed. A bearish divergence has formed on Awesome Oscillator indicator, and Stochastic Oscillator indicator shows the parametrs of 30.10.10. and  signals oversoldness. The inclined channel of the ascending truncated patterrn is broken.

Trading recommendations:

Buy while the descending wave pattern is forming.

Stop loss at the resistance level 279.00.

Target levels – 269.60; 260.40.

When buying an option against the trend, it is necessary to confirm other instruments of technical analysis - the presence of divergence, candlestick reversal patterns. Buy against trend strictly on level retest! Buying an option before publishing important economic news is considered risky.   The expiration time depends on the strength of the level and confirmation by additional tools of technical and fundamental analysis.

The support level of 1.7320 holds back sellers. An H4 level downward truncated pattern has formed, while within its wave (C) a turncated H1 level pattern has formed. A bullish divergence has formed on Awesome Oscillator H1 and H4. Stochastic Oscillator indicator signals oversoldness.

Trading recommendations:

Buy while an ascending wave pattern is forming, where the wave (A) breaks through the inclined channel of the descending truncated structure of the H1 level, completing it.

Stop Loss under the support level - 1.7320.

Target levels - 1.7514; 1.7610.

Gold spot is still trading in the range of 1477.00-1514.50 due the uncertainty around the outcome of the US-China trade war. From a technical point of view, if it does not grow after the US employment data is released, a local reversal of the price will be expected. 

The price is above the Bollinger band, below SMA 5, but above SMA 14. RSI is located under the oversold zone and is gradually declining. Stoch are out of the overbought zone.

Trading recommendations:

If the data on the number of new jobs in the US shows a higher value than 89,000, gold may turn down and rush to the lower limit of the range of 1477.00.

The dollar fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted to the downside to witness a rebound for the third consecutive session from the highest since early August, when it tested the highest since late May to promise the first weekly losses in four weeks against the Japanese yen following the developments and economic data that followed The Japanese economy is on the threshold of economic developments and data expected on Friday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 06:07 AM GMT, the US dollar against the Japanese yen fell 0.05% to 107.98 levels from the opening levels of 108.03, after the pair reached its lowest level since October 11 at 107.89, while the pair achieved the highest During the trading session at 108.06.

The Japanese economy followed the release of the Unemployment Rate which rose to 2.4% compared to the previous reading in August and expectations of 2.2%. This came before we witnessed the release of the final reading of the Industrial Purchasing Managers' Index by Markit for Japan which showed a widening Deflation to 48.4 compared to last month's preliminary reading and expectations of 48.5 and 48.9 in September.

This came hours after the Bank of Japan's monetary policy makers decided to keep interest rates negative at 0.10%, which was expected in the markets, with the release of the monetary policy statement of the Japanese central bank, and before the press conference held by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday. In Tokyo, he noted that the bank would not hesitate to expand its stimulus and asset purchase program if necessary.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy to reveal last month's labor market data, which may reflect a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.6% vs. 3.5% in September, while the change in jobs index for non-agricultural sectors may show a slower pace of job creation. The average income per hour may show a 0.3% growth versus steady at zero levels.

This comes before we see the final reading of the US Manufacturing PMI by Markit, which may reflect the stability of the expansion at 51.5, little changed from the initial reading of last month versus 51.1 in September, and before we see the largest The ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a contraction shrinking to 49.0 vs. 47.8 in September.

In the same context, markets are also looking ahead to the US economy for the ISM Manufacturing Price Index reading to 50.1 versus a contraction of 49.7 in September, coinciding with the release of the Construction Spending which reflects accelerated growth to 0.2. % Compared to 0.1% last August.

This comes before we see FOMC and Fed Governor Richard Clarda delivering a speech titled "The United States, Japan and the Global Economy at the Japan Society's Food Banquet in New York," in conjunction with another Fed Governor Randall Quarles's speech on Friedrich. Hayek and the price system at the event hosted by Yale University in Connecticut.

FOMC Chairman John Williams will co-chair a question and answer session at Rutgers University in New Jersey, following the decision of Federal Reserve policy makers at the FOMC meeting October 29-30. Cut interest rates for the third consecutive meeting by 25 basis points to between 1.50% and 1.75%.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY achieved a strong break of 108.40 yesterday and stabilized below it, stopping the suggested positive scenario in our recent reports and putting the price under negative pressure expected for the coming period, but we note that the decline stopped at the support of the bullish corrective channel, accompanied by the emergence of positive signals through the stochastic , Which may push the price to recover again.

Therefore, this inconsistency between the technical factors makes us prefer to remain neutral until we get a clearer signal for the next trend, noting that the breach of 107.95 will press the price to achieve further decline and visit 107.45 as the next negative target, while a breach of 108.40 and stability above it will restore Activate the bullish scenario with its first target at 109.33.

Expected trading range for today is between 107.30 support and 108.80 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Neutral.