The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range that tends to decline during the Asian session, to witness the resumption of its rebound from its high since November 24 for the second session in five sessions against the Japanese yen following developments and economic data that they followed on the Japanese economy and on the cusp of developments and expected economic data today, Tuesday. By the US economy the largest in the world.
At 07:25 AM GMT, the US dollar against the Japanese yen fell by 0.01% to 104.04 levels compared to the opening levels at 104.05, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the session’s trading at 103.96, while achieving its highest at 104.09.
On the Japanese economy, the second largest in Asia and the third largest in the world, we followed the release of the annual household spending index, which showed an increase of 1.9% against a decline of 10.2% last September, contrary to expectations that indicated a rise of 2.7%. This coincided with the annual average income reading showing that the decline has narrowed to 0.8% from 1.3% in September, worse than expectations for a 0.7% decline.
This came before we witnessed the disclosure of the final seasonally adjusted final reading of the GDP index, which showed a growth of 5.3% compared to the initial reading for the third quarter and expectations of a growth of 5.0% and compared to a contraction of 7.9% in the last second quarter, and the final annual reading of the same index measured by prices showed a growth of 1.2% Compared to the preliminary annual reading for the last quarter and expectations of 1.1% growth versus 1.3% growth in the second quarter.
This came in conjunction with the reading of the current account index, which showed the surplus widening to a value of 1.98 trillion yen, compared to 1.35 trillion yen in September, surpassing the expectations that indicated a surplus of 1.83 trillion yen, as the seasonally adjusted reading of the same index showed the expansion of the surplus to its value. 2,145 billion yen compared to 1,660 billion yen, also better than expectations that indicated a surplus of 2,126 billion yen.
This also came in conjunction with the Bank of Japan's disclosure of the annual reading of the bank lending index, which showed an acceleration of growth to 6.3%, in line with expectations, compared to 6.1% last October, leading to the Japanese Cabinet Office's disclosure of Echo Watchers’s statistic reading of current conditions, which showed contraction. Current conditions rose to a value of 45.6, against a 54.5 expansion in October, contrary to expectations that indicated a contraction of the expansion to 52.7.
On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the American economy to unveil the final reading of the productivity index and the cost of work, and it is expected that the reading of the productivity index will confirm a rise of 4.9%, without any change from the initial reading for the third quarter, compared to a growth of 10.1% in the previous reading for the second quarter, While the cost index reading may confirm a decline of 8.9%, unchanged from the previous preliminary reading, and against a growth of 9.0% in the second quarter.
Technical analysis
The dollar against the yen began to rebound to the downside after testing the main resistance line, which supports the continuation of our expectations for the bearish trend, waiting for the breach of 103.65 to reinforce expectations for the continuation of the bearish wave in the intraday and short term, whose next target is at 103.00.
In general, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period unless breaching 104.76 level and holding above it.
The expected trading range for today is between 103.20 support and 104.50 resistance
The expected general trend for today: Bearish