Analytic reviews

The single currency fluctuated in a narrow, bullish range during the Asian session, witnessing its rebound for the second consecutive session from the lowest since October 10 against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Monday by euro zone economies, which includes a conservative testimony European Central Bank Christine Lagarde before the European Parliament in Brussels and the developments and economic data expected by the US economy the largest economy in the world.

At 05:58 AM GMT, the euro against the US dollar rose 0.05% to 1.1019 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1013 after the pair reached its highest level during the trading session at 1.1027, while the lowest level at 1.1007, knowing that The pair started the session on a bearish price gap after it closed the week and last trading at 1.1018.

Markets are now looking to reveal the industrial sector data from Spain, the fourth largest economy in the euro zone, with the release of the manufacturing PMI which may reflect a widening contraction to 46.5 vs. 46.8 in October, before we see the same indicator for Italy. The region's third-largest economy may also reflect a widening deflation to 47.5 vs. 47.7 in October.

This comes before we see the final reading of the manufacturing PMI for France, the second largest economy in the euro zone and Germany, the largest economies in the region as well as the economies of the euro area as a whole, which may reflect the stability of the expansion at 51.6 in France compared to 50.7 in October, and the stability of deflation At 43.8 in Germany versus 42.1, deflation also stabilized at 46.6 in the region as a whole versus 45.9.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy to reveal the final reading of the manufacturing PMI by Markit from the US which may reflect the stability of the expansion at 52.2, little changed from the initial reading of last month and against 51.3 in October. Before we saw the release of the construction spending index, which reflects the slowdown in growth to 0.3% compared to 0.5% last September.

This comes in conjunction with the revelation by the world's largest industrialized countries that the ISM reading could show contraction shrinking to 49.2 vs. 48.3 in October. Its value was 47.0 versus 45.5 in October.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD rally stopped at SMA 50, which met the minor resistance 1.1030, in conjunction with stochastic reaching overbought areas, supporting the chances of a bearish bounce and resuming the expected bearishness over intraday and short term, targeting mainly 1.0950 areas.

In general, we will continue to favor the bearishness for the coming period unless breaching 1.1065 and holding above it.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0930 support and 1.1065 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow, bullish range during the Asian session to witness the rebound of the second session of the lowest since October 17 last against the US dollar following the developments and economic data that followed the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Monday before the US economy The largest economy in the world.

At 02:04 AM GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.15% to 0.6773 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6764, after the pair achieved the highest during the trading session at 0.6774, while the pair achieved the lowest at 0.6756.

The Australian Manufacturing Index was released by the Australian Industrial Group (AIG) which showed a contraction to 48.1 vs. 51.6 in October, before we saw the release of the inflation index by the Melbourne Institute (MI). ), Which showed steadyness at zero versus 0.1% growth in October.

In addition to the disclosure of the operating profit index of companies, which showed a decline of 8.1% against a rise of 4.8%, which was revised from a rise of 4.5% in the second quarter of last year, contrary to expectations that slow the pace of growth to 1.0%, and this coincided with the release of preliminary labor market data Aussie with the release of the jobs announcement showed that the decline widened to 1.7% versus a rise of 1.0% in October.

We also followed the release of Australian housing market data with the release of Building Permits which showed a decline of 8.1% versus a rise of 7.2% last September, worse than expectations for a decline of 1.0%, while the annual reading of the same index showed a decline to 23.6 % Vs. 17.0% in the prior yearly reading for September, also worse than expectations for a widening decline to 18.0%.

On Tuesday, markets are looking ahead to RBA policymakers' decisions as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate statement is set to be held for the second consecutive meeting after being cut this year by 25bp three times to 0.75%. On Wednesday, we will see the release of the third quarter growth data which may reflect the steady growth of 0.5%.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy to reveal the final reading of the manufacturing PMI by Markit from the US which may reflect the stability of the expansion at 52.2, little changed from the initial reading of last month and against 51.3 in October. Before we saw the release of the Construction Spending reading, which reflects a slowdown in growth to 0.3% vs. 0.5% in September.

This comes in conjunction with the revelation by the world's largest industrialized countries that the ISM reading could show contraction shrinking to 49.2 vs. 48.3 in October. Its value was 47.0 versus 45.5 in October.

Technical Analysis

The narrow range continues to dominate the AUDUSD trading, which stabilizes below SMA 50, keeping the bearish scenario intact for the upcoming period, unchanged, awaiting to visit 0.6725 then 0.6670 mainly, while recalling the importance of stability below 0.6840 to continue the decline. Expected.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6720 support and 0.6800 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

A Bearish divergence has formed on Awesome Oscillator. The Stochastic Oscillator indicator signals overboughtness. Probably, the upward movement is a wave (B) of the downward pattern of the D1 level.

Trading recommendations:

Sell while a descending pattern is forming, where the wave (AU) breaks through the inclined channel of the ascending pattern, completing it.

Stop Loss for local maximum (82.62).

Target levels: 81.92; 81.30.

The US has threatened to sanction Russia due to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline construction. The sanctions will be aimed directly at the project participants and have a purpose of slowing down the construction, which in turn will lead to higher costs of the project.

Breaking through the support level of 250.00 will result in the formation of a descending wave  pattern within the wave (C) of the descending structure of the H4 level.

Trading recommendations:

Sell Below 250.00.

Stop Loss – 260.00.

Target levels - 244.30; 235.00; 228.00.

After a sharp recovery on Friday, the gold price is consolidating in the range of 1452.45–1465.00 on Monday due to the US statistical data along with the US-China trade talks update. Strong economic data from the US may support demand for risk assets and push the dollar upwards, which will have a negative impact on the gold.

The price is above the middle line of Bollinger band, below SMA 5 and SMA 14. RSI is located at 50%. Stoch have turned down.

Trading recommendations:

Expect the instrument to continue trading flat today. In general, the price may start continue falling after breaking the strong support level of 1452.45 and proceed further down to 1444.50..

When buying an option against the trend, it is necessary to confirm other instruments of technical analysis - the presence of divergence, candlestick reversal patterns. Buy against trend strictly on level retest! Buying an option before publishing important economic news is considered risky.   The expiration time depends on the strength of the level and confirmation by additional tools of technical and fundamental analysis.

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow uptrend range during the Asian session while still making its fourth weekly loss in a row and the first monthly loss in three months against the US dollar following the developments and economic data that followed on Friday on the Australian economy and amid the lack of economic data by the US economy The world's largest economy after hours of Thanksgiving holidays in the United States.

At 03:59 AM GMT, the AUDUSD is up 0.03% at 0.6772 compared to the opening levels of 0.6770, after the pair reached its highest level during the session at 0.6773, while the pair achieved the lowest at 0.6764.

The Australian economy followed the release of the private sector credit which showed growth slowed to 0.1% vs. 0.2% in September, contrary to expectations for an acceleration of growth to 0.3%, and the annual reading of the same index showed that growth slowed to 2.5% compared to the reading. The prior year for September was forecast at 2.7%, which came on the eve of the release of the housing market data with the release of the New Home Sales Index released by the Housing Industry Association during October.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD did not show any strong movement yesterday, to remain stable around 0.6775, therefore, no change to our expectations for a bearish trend that depends on stability below 0.6840, supported by negative pressure formed by SMA 50, with reminders that our awaited targets start At 0.6725 and extending to 0.6670.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6720 support and 0.6800 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

The euro was steady in the European market on Friday against a basket of global currencies, in a limited range of trading against the US dollar, as investors were reluctant to build new positions, in anticipation of the release of inflation data in Europe in November, which provides strong evidence on the possibility of continued ECB In expanding monetary stimulus to support economic recovery and counter recessionary pressure.

The euro against the dollar by 07:15 GMT, trading at $ 1.1009 from an opening price of $ 1.1006 after recording the highest price of $ 1.1012, and the lowest of $ 1.1006.

During Thursday's trading, the euro gained about 0.1% against the dollar, recovering from a two-week low of $ 1.0992 the previous day.

In November, which officially ends when prices are settled today, the single currency lost 1.3% against the US dollar, resuming its monthly losses, which were temporarily halted in October for the first time in four months.

The monthly loss is attributed to improved risk appetite among investors, with a focus on buying higher-yielding currencies, as positive developments in US-China trade talks and the world's two largest economies are nearing completion of the first phase of the trade agreement.

Later in the day, investors awaited important data from Europe on key inflation levels in November, providing strong evidence of possible ECB stimulus measures at upcoming meetings.

By 10:00 GMT, the preliminary November CPI reading is expected to rise 0.8% from a 0.7% rise in October, excluding food and fuel prices expected to rise 1.2% from a 1.1% increase the previous reading.

Technical Analysis

The narrow range dominated the EURUSD trading yesterday, thus, there is no change in the bearish trend scenario which depends on stability below 1.1065, waiting for the next target at 1.0950.

Keep in mind that a break of 1.1065 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to make gains starting at 1.1105 and extending to 1.1180.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0930 support and 1.1065 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to witness the rebound for the third session from its highest since May 31, while still making weekly and monthly gains against the Japanese yen following the developments and economic data that followed on Friday on the Japanese economy and amid the lack of data Economic by the US economy after hours of Thanksgiving holidays in the United States.

At 06:29 am GMT, the dollar against the Japanese yen fell by 0.02% to 109.49 levels compared to the opening levels at 109.51 after the pair reached its lowest level during the session at 109.45, while the highest level at 109.60.

The Japanese economy followed the release of inflation data with the release of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index which showed growth accelerated to 0.8% versus 0.4% in the prior year of October, beating expectations for an acceleration of 0.6%. The core annual reading of the same index, which excludes fresh food, showed growth accelerated to 0.6% in line with expectations against 0.5%.

In the same context, the core annual reading of the Tokyo consumer price index excluding fresh food and energy stabilized growth at 0.7%, little changed from the previous annual reading for the month of October, in line with expectations, coinciding with the release of the unemployment rate index, which It showed stability at 2.4%, little changed from the previous reading last September, also in line with expectations.

We also followed the Japanese economy, the third largest economy in the world and the third largest industrial country in the world the preliminary reading of industrial production, which showed a decline of 4.2% versus 1.7% in September, worse than expectations for a decline of 2.0%, and in the same context, the reading showed The index is down 7.4% from 1.3% in the prior September reading, worse than expectations for a 5.3% decline.

The Consumer Confidence reading came in at 38.7 vs. 36.2 in October, beating expectations of 37.0. This came in conjunction with the release of the housing market data with the release of the annual Housing Starts Index which showed a broader decline. 7.4% versus 4.9% in the prior yearly reading last September, beating expectations that the decline would widen to 7.5%.

Yesterday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Japan is in contact with the United States and South Korea to discuss the situation in North Korea, noting that the missile launches are a major threat to Japan and the international community. It was reported that North Korea fired two ballistic missiles, while there was no indication that the missiles hit Japan.

Yesterday, Bank of Japan Governor Hariko Kuroda said that policy integration is the ideal way to deal with the economy, noting that coordination between government and BOJ policies is important and necessary, with limited space for fiscal spending in Japan. Low interest makes fiscal policies more effective, he said, adding that monetary policy is geared towards achieving its goals.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY maintains stability above 109.33, and receives positive support from SMA 50, which keeps our bullish outlook intact for the upcoming period, targeting mainly 110.50 areas, while recalling the importance of stability above 109.33 for the continuation of the expected rally.

Expected trading range for today is between 108.80 support and 110.20 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow, bullish range during the Asian session to see a rebound for the second session in three of the lowest since November 12, when it tested the lowest since August 2 amid the rebound of the US dollar index for the third session of the The highest since November 13, when the highest since October 15 was tested according to their inverse relationship amid the lack of economic data on Friday by the US economy and with tensions over Hong Kong.

At 04:57 AM GMT gold futures for February delivery rose 0.23% to trade at $ 1,464.50 an ounce compared with the opening at $ 1,461.20 an ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session on a bullish price gap after yesterday's trading ended At $ 1,460.80 an ounce, with the US dollar index down 0.04% to 98.31 compared to the opening at 98.35.

On Thursday, we followed the Chinese Foreign Ministry's remarks that Washington has "evil intentions", stating that the US bill supporting Hong Kong protesters will face strong countermeasures and that the US should repeal the new bill. This is a strong interference in China's internal affairs and the US ambassador has been summoned to formally denounce it.

This came hours after US President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed a bill supporting Hong Kong protesters, raising investor concerns about the chances of resolving trade disputes between the United States and China and reaching an interim trade agreement before December 15. Washington is set to impose 15 percent additional tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 160 billion.

Yesterday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Japan is in contact with the United States and South Korea to discuss the situation in North Korea, noting that the missiles launched by Japan are a major threat to Japan and the international community. Hours after the report that North Korea fired two ballistic missiles, there was no indication that the missiles hit Japan.

On the other hand, yesterday we followed the approval of the European Parliament to increase EU imports of American meat, which may reduce trade tensions between Washington and Brussels, knowing that European lawmakers have criticized the tariffs imposed by the US administration on imports of metals and threatening the president American Trump imposes tariffs on cars and auto parts received for his country from the Union.

Otherwise, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said yesterday that his ruling party, currently in parliamentary elections on the threshold of resuming negotiations on Brexit, would not sign a trade deal with the United States if President Trump insists US companies should be allowed to interfere in Health care services in Britain.

British Prime Minister Johnson also noted that it would be stupid to negotiate allowing US companies to intervene in Britain's healthcare services, hours after Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn accused the British prime minister of planning a deal with the US president to allow US companies to interfere in health services. UK amid the upcoming British parliamentary elections in the first half of next month.

European Council President Donald Tusk said Wednesday that US President Trump may be the biggest challenge facing the eurozone, as the latter wants the collapse of the European Union, noting that Trump welcomed the departure of Britain to the EU, and he always raises questions about the importance of NATO NATO and other alliances, adding that for the first time in history comes an American president who opposes European unity.

In the same vein, we also followed on Wednesday the European Union's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, who said he would give the highest priority to negotiations on a trade agreement with the UK after Britain leaves the EU. Britain will join the union on January 31 and that they must reach a trade agreement in that period before the end of 2020.

Technical Analysis

Gold is testing the resistance of the bearish intraday channel shown on the chart, and then SMA 50 meets to add more strength to it, while Stochastic is losing its positive momentum to reach overbought areas.

Therefore, these factors encourage us to favor the bearishness of the upcoming period, which targets start at 1447.00 and extends to 1413.10 after breaking the previous level, noting that breaching 1460.00 will stop the suggested decline and push the price for temporary intraday gains aiming to test 1489.00 before any new negative attempt. .

Expected trading range for today is between 1440.00 support and 1470.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.