Analytic reviews

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted toward decline during the Asian session, to witness its bounce back for the third session in five sessions from its highest since last November, condoning the decline in the US dollar index for the seventh session in eight sessions from its highest since October 15 Last October, according to the inverse relationship between them.

This follows the economic developments and data that were announced by the Chinese economy, the largest consumer of minerals in the world, and on the threshold of economic developments and data expected today by the US economy, the largest economy in the world, which includes launching the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, and with markets pricing the developments of the existing trade war. Between Washington and Beijing.

At exactly 03:24 AM GMT, gold price futures for February delivery fell 0.09% to trade at $ 1,465.00 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,466.30 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the trading session on an upward price gap after yesterday's trading was concluded At $ 1,464.90 an ounce, while the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 97.61 compared to the opening at 97.65.

We have followed about the Chinese economy, the second largest economy in the world, to reveal the annual reading of the consumer price index, which showed accelerated growth to 4.5%, in line with expectations, compared to 3.8% in October, while the annual reading of the producer price index, which is an initial indication of inflationary pressures, Deflation narrowed to 1.4% versus 1.6%, beating expectations for a contraction of 1.5%.

On the other hand, investors are anticipating by the American economy to disclose the final reading of the productivity index and the cost of one business, amid expectations that the productivity index reading will show a decline of 0.3% compared to a decline of 0.1% in the initial reading for the third quarter and against a growth of 2.3% in the previous reading of the second quarter of last, While the cost index reading may show a slowdown in growth to 3.4% compared to 3.6% in the first reading and 2.6% in the second quarter.

Other than that, the markets are looking forward to the launching of the FOMC meeting, which takes place today and tomorrow, Wednesday in Washington, through which the short-term reference interest rates for the second consecutive meeting are expected to remain between 1.75% and 2.00% in conjunction with the disclosure of Committee members' expectations for growth, inflation and unemployment rates, as well as the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Up to the press conference to be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell tomorrow, exactly half an hour after the FOMC meeting ends to comment on the decisions of the Federal Reserve monetary policy makers, which has been witnessing widespread criticism recently by US President Donald Trump who is calling on the Federal Reserve and his Powell Governor to go Move ahead to cut federal funds interest "to zero or less."

Looking at the developments in the trade war between the world's two largest economies, we followed yesterday. US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said, "We have a December 15 deadline for another slice of tariffs, I don't think these will be implemented and I think we might see some delay." In the wake of the report, which was touched upon at the weekend, that China had purchased five shipments of soybeans, estimated at 300,000 tons, from the United States.

It is reported that White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow noted Friday that Washington is close to concluding a trade agreement with Beijing, explaining that US President Donald Trump is seeking a good agreement with China, adding that December 15 is an important date regarding tariffs and that the American administration They use tariffs as part of their trade negotiations and push China to expand purchases of US agricultural products.

The markets are looking to Washington’s decision by the middle of the month or not to activate a 15% increase in customs duties on Chinese goods valued at $ 156 billion, and we would like to point out that the US President Trump expressed last week that he prefers in one way or another to postpone the conclusion of a trade deal with China after the presidential elections. 2020, with his statement that Beijing wants to conclude a deal at the moment with Washington and that "we will see if the deal will be correct or not."

Markets are also looking after tomorrow, Thursday, for the European Central Bank meeting, during which monetary policy makers at the European Central Bank are expected to decide to maintain interest rates at their current zero levels and stabilize the marginal lending rate at 0.25% in addition to remaining on the interest rate on negative deposits - 0.40% and proceed with the quantitative easing program at 20 billion euros per month, as long as necessary.

This comes before we also witness next Thursday the press conference of the European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde, which is her first press conference after she took over the post of former Governor Mario Draghi with the beginning of last month, and in conjunction with the actual parliamentary elections in Britain, which may be reflected directly on a file The United Kingdom leaves the European Union at the preset date, at the end of January.

Technical analysis

The gold price returns to fluctuation in a narrow path stable around 1460.00, and we notice that the recent trading is confined within an ascending sub channel that we believe constitutes a bearish continuation flag pattern, which means that breaking its support at 1456.00 will provide a strong negative incentive that supports the expectations of the descending correction wave extending beyond our first expected target at 1447.00 and up to 1413.10.

Consequently, we continue to favor the bearish trend for the next period unless the price rushes to breach the pivotal resistance level 1489.00 and hold above it, noting that a breach of 1467.00 may push the price to breach this resistance before any new attempt to decrease.

The expected trading range for today is between 1445.00 support and 1470.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

Google shares continue to move within the ascending channel after breaking through the resistance 1332.21 and settled in trading above it.

As the price continues to move within the bullish channel above the moving averages 7-20-50 which forms support levels and presses it to rise towards the next resistance 1369.13

The stochastic oscillator has reached the overbought zone and its continuation within this region will push the price for more gains.

The general direction of the movement: an upward path.

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session against the Japanese yen after the developments and economic data that it followed on the Japanese economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today by the US economy, the largest economy in the world, which includes the launch of the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington.

At exactly 06:01 am GMT, the US dollar pair rose against the Japanese yen by 0.06% to 108.62 levels compared to the opening levels at 108.56 after the pair achieved its highest during the trading session at 108.66, while achieving the lowest at 108.55.

We have followed about the Japanese economy, the Bank of Japan revealed the annual reading of the M-2 bank lending index, which showed accelerated growth to 2.8% compared to 2.4% in the previous annual reading of last October, and this came before we witnessed the release of the annual preliminary reading of the rates index The machines for the last month, which reflected the widening of the decline to 37.9% compared to 37.4% in the previous preliminary reading for the month of October.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of the final reading of the productivity index and the cost of one work, and it is expected that the productivity index reading will show a 0.3% decline compared to a 0.1% decline in the initial reading for the third quarter and a growth of 2.3% in the previous reading of the second quarter last , While the cost index reading may show a slowdown in growth to 3.4% compared to 3.6% in the first reading and 2.6% in the second quarter.

Other than that, the markets are looking forward to the launching of the FOMC meeting, which takes place today and tomorrow, Wednesday in Washington, through which the short-term reference interest rates for the second consecutive meeting are expected to remain between 1.75% and 2.00% in conjunction with the disclosure of Committee members' expectations for growth, inflation and unemployment rates, as well as the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Up to the press conference to be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell tomorrow, exactly half an hour after the FOMC meeting ends to comment on the decisions of the Federal Reserve monetary policy makers, which has been witnessing widespread criticism recently by US President Donald Trump who is calling on the Federal Reserve and his Powell Governor to go Move ahead to cut federal funds interest "to zero or less."

Technical analysis

The dollar versus the yen continues to fluctuate near the 108.40 level, as it faces continuous negative pressure coming from the EMA50, while the stochastic indicator is clearly losing its positive momentum to enter the overbought areas.

Thus, we believe that opportunities are available to resume the downside movement during the upcoming sessions, and the price needs to break the 108.40 level to confirm the rally towards 107.45, while noting the importance of holding below 109.33 to continue the expected decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 107.80 support and 109.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the fourth session in eight sessions from the lowest since October 17 against the US dollar following the speech of the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Liu in Sydney in addition to the developments and economic data that he reported on The Australian economy is on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today by the American economy, which includes launching the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington

At exactly 02:31 AM GMT, the Australian dollar pair rose against the US dollar by 0.18% to 0.6835 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6823, after the pair achieved its highest during the trading session at 0.6837, while achieving the lowest at 0.6819.

This has been followed by the speech of the Australian Central Bank Governor Philip Liu, which he noted that the country's GDP data were broadly in line with expectations and that confident consumers will spend more, as he touched that many citizens in His country has high debts, which could make spending take longer, explaining that weak consumption growth was a surprise in GDP.

This came before we witnessed the disclosure of the Australian housing market data with the release of the house price index, which showed a rise of 2.4% compared to a decline of 0.7% in the second quarter, outperforming the expectations that indicated a rise of 0.5%, while the annual reading of the same index indicated a decline in the decline to 3.7% compared to 7.4% in the previous annual reading for the second quarter, also outperforming expectations that indicated a decline to 4.6%.

We also followed up on the Australian economy, revealing the reading of the Australian National Bank’s business confidence index, which showed stability at zero levels compared to its value of 2 last October, while reading the same indicator of confidence in the current conditions showed stability widening at a value of 4.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the American economy the disclosure of the final reading of the productivity index and the cost of one business, and it is expected that the productivity index reading will show a 0.3% decline compared to a 0.1% decline in the initial reading for the third quarter and a growth of 2.3% in the previous reading for the second quarter, While the cost index reading may show a slowdown in growth to 3.4% compared to 3.6% in the first reading and 2.6% in the second quarter.

Other than that, the markets are looking forward to the launching of the FOMC meeting, which takes place today and tomorrow, Wednesday in Washington, through which the short-term reference interest rates for the second consecutive meeting are expected to remain between 1.75% and 2.00% in conjunction with the disclosure of Committee members' expectations for growth, inflation and unemployment rates, as well as the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Up to the press conference to be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell tomorrow, exactly half an hour after the FOMC meeting ends to comment on the decisions of the Federal Reserve monetary policy makers, which has been witnessing widespread criticism recently by US President Donald Trump who is calling on the Federal Reserve and his Powell Governor to go Move ahead to cut federal funds interest "to zero or less."

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar continues to fluctuate in a narrow path, and is still inside the bullish channel that appears in the picture, and therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain intact as it remains unchanged for the next period, relying on price stability above 0.6755 level, noting that our next main target Up to 0.7015.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6790 support and 0.6870 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.

The pair is consolidating in a narrow range of 1.1050-1.1085 in anticipation of the final decisions of the Fed and the ECB on monetary policies. The dollar is more likely to take stronger positions than the euro. The dollar will receive support given the high probability of maintaining interest rates by the Fed and the continuation of the ECB's soft policy.

The price is below the middle Bollinger band, between SMA 5 and SMA 14. RSI is below 50% and moves horizontally. Stoch are not informative.

Trading recommendations: 
Sell the pair after its decline below 1.1050 with a local target of 1.0990.

Sberbank shares return to test the resistance level 236.11 after we were able to breach the resistance 231.74. and return to the bullish channel that was trading within it.

The price is moving in a downward path under the negative influence of SMA 20 which is moving above the price while SMA 50 remains a support level.

The stochastic oscillator is moving upwards so we will see the price attempt to retest the 236.11 resistance and try to breach it.

The general direction of the movement: bullish.

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted towards the decline during the Asian session, to witness its bounce to the fifth session in six sessions from the top since May 30, when it tested the highest for it since 23 of the same month against the Japanese yen after the developments and economic data that we adopted today on Monday. The Japanese economy and amid the scarcity of economic data on the US economy earlier this week, which carries the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At exactly 05:55 AM GMT, the US dollar pair fell against the Japanese yen by 0.07% to 108.57 levels compared to the opening levels at 108.65 after the pair achieved its lowest during the trading session at 108.54, while it achieved its highest at 108.72, knowing that The pair started trading this week on an upward price, after it concluded the trading last week at 108.58 levels.

On the Japanese economy, we have followed the disclosure of the seasonally adjusted final reading of GDP, which showed an acceleration in the pace of growth to 0.4% compared to 0.1% growth in the previous initial reading for the third quarter and compared to 0.3% growth in the previous reading of the second quarter, while the annual reading of the GDP showed Measured by prices, the growth is stable at 0.6%, also in line with expectations and against 0.4% growth.

In the same context, the seasonally adjusted annual final reading of GDP showed an acceleration of growth to 1.8% compared to 0.2% growth in the previous annual preliminary reading for the past quarter, outperforming expectations that indicated 0.6% growth and 1.6% growth in the second quarter annual reading, and this came In conjunction with the annual reading of the bank lending index, growth accelerated to 2.1%, in line with expectations, compared to 2.0% in October.

This came also in conjunction with the disclosure of the current account reading, which showed the widening of the surplus to 1,817 billion yen compared to 1.613 billion yen last September, outperforming the expectations that indicated the widening of the surplus to 1,807 billion yen, as the seasonally adjusted reading of the same indicator indicated the widening of the surplus to 1.732 billion yen from 1.485 billion yen in September, also beating forecasts of 1.731 billion yen.

The Japanese Cabinet Office revealed an ECO Watchers statistic reading of the current and future conditions, which showed the contraction of the current situation shrank to 39.4 compared to 36.7 in October, without expectations that the contraction would shrink to 39.7, as the reading of future conditions showed that the contraction decreased to 45.7 vs. 43.7, beating expectations of 44.6.

On the other hand, the markets are looking for tomorrow, Tuesday, for the launching of the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting to be held tomorrow and the day after tomorrow Wednesday in Washington, which is expected to remain on the short-term benchmark interest rates for the second consecutive meeting at between 1.75% and 2.00% simultaneously. With the disclosure of the expectations of members of the Committee to the rates of growth, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future interest rates for the next three years.

Up to the press conference to be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell on Wednesday, exactly half an hour after the end of the FOMC’s meeting to comment on the decisions of the Fed’s monetary policy makers, which has recently witnessed widespread criticism by US President Donald Trump who is calling on the Federal Reserve and his Powell Governor to go Move ahead to cut federal funds interest "to zero or less."

Technical analysis

The dollar versus the yen is trading near the pivotal support of 108.40, and it is located under the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, which supports the chances of breaking the aforementioned level to open the way for the continuation of the bearish bias during the upcoming sessions, where our next target is located at 107.45.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend over an intraday and short term unless 109.33 level is breached and stability above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 107.80 support and 109.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range that tilted back down during the Asian session to witness its bounce back for the third session in four sessions from its highest since November 7 amid the succession of the US dollar index rebound from the lowest since the fourth of the same month according to the reverse relationship between them after The economic developments and data that were reported from the Asian economies, with investors looking to the decisions and directions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, in addition to the British elections later this week.

At exactly 03:17 AM GMT, gold price futures for February delivery fell 0.02% to trade at $ 1,463.80 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,464.10 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session’s trading on a falling price gap after the week’s transactions ended The past at $ 1,465.10 an ounce, with the US dollar index rising 0.01% to 97.71 compared to the opening at 97.70.

We have followed the disclosure by the General Administration of Customs of China (CGAC) on the reading of the Trade Balance Index, which showed that the surplus has shrunk to 274 billion yuan, equivalent to $ 38.7 billion compared to 301 billion yuan, equivalent to $ 42.8 billion last October. Contrary to expectations, which indicated a surplus of 300 billion yuan, equivalent to $ 44.5 billion, as exports and imports increased during the past month.

We would like to point out that the decline in Chinese exports for the fourth month in a row during November, with exports of China, the largest Asian economy and the second largest economy in the world after the United States, decreased by 1.1% from what it was in the same month last year, amid declining exports to The United States, 23%, reflects the impact of the ongoing trade war between the world's two largest economies on trade volume between the two parties.

It is reported that White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow noted Friday that Washington is close to concluding a trade agreement with Beijing, explaining that US President Donald Trump seeks to reach a good agreement with China, adding that December 15 is an important date regarding tariffs and that the American administration They use tariffs as part of their trade negotiations and push China to expand purchases of US agricultural products.

The markets are looking to Washington’s approval by the middle of this month of whether or not to activate a 15% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 160 billion. It is reported that US President Trump expressed last week that he prefers in one way or another to postpone the conclusion of a trade deal with China until after the 2020 presidential elections. , With his statement that Beijing wants to conclude a deal at the moment with Washington and that "we will see whether the deal will be valid or not."

Other than that, we followed up on the Japanese economy to reveal the seasonally adjusted final reading of GDP, which showed an acceleration in the pace of growth to 0.4% compared to 0.1% growth in the previous initial reading for the third quarter and compared to 0.3% growth in the previous reading for the last second quarter, while the annual reading of the GDP showed GDP measured by prices, stability at 0.6%, also in line with expectations and 0.4% growth.

This came also in conjunction with the disclosure of the current account reading, which showed the widening of the surplus to 1,817 billion yen compared to 1.613 billion yen last September, outperforming the expectations that indicated the widening of the surplus to 1,807 billion yen, as the seasonally adjusted reading of the same indicator indicated the widening of the surplus to 1.732 billion yen from 1.485 billion yen in September, also beating forecasts of 1.731 billion yen.

In another context, the markets are looking for tomorrow, Tuesday, for the launching of the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that will be held tomorrow and the day after tomorrow Wednesday in Washington, which is expected to remain on the short-term reference interest rates for the second consecutive meeting at between 1.75% and 2.00% simultaneously. With the disclosure of the expectations of members of the committee to the rates of growth, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future interest rates for the next three years.

Up to the press conference that will be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell on Wednesday, exactly half an hour after the end of the FOMC’s meeting to comment on the decisions of the Fed’s monetary policy makers, which has been witnessing widespread criticism recently by US President Trump, who is calling on the Federal Reserve and its Governor Powell to move forward. In cutting interest on federal funds "to zero or less".

Next Thursday, the markets are looking to the ECB meeting, during which monetary policy makers at the European Central Bank are expected to decide to maintain interest rates at their current zero levels and to stabilize the marginal lending rate at 0.25% in addition to remaining on the deposit interest rate negative -0.40 % And move forward with the quantitative easing program at 20 billion euros per month, as long as necessary.

This comes before we also witness next Thursday the European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde’s press conference, which is her first press conference after she took over the post of former Governor Mario Draghi at the beginning of last month, and this comes in conjunction with the actual parliamentary elections in Britain which may be directly reflected On the UK exit file on the preset date by the end of January.

Technical analysis

Gold price provided negative trading last Friday evening, moving above the moving average 50 and approaching our first awaited target at 1447.00, reinforcing the expectations for the continuation of the downward correction, which is organized within the descending channel that appears in the picture, noting that breaking the mentioned level will push the price to 1413.10 as a station Next major.

Thus, the bearish bias will remain likely for the coming period, provided that the price maintains its stability below 1489.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 1445.00 support and 1470.00 resistance.

The euro currency fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness its rebound to the fifth session in seven sessions from the lowest since October 10 against the US dollar on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today Monday by the economies of the euro area and amid the scarcity of economic data By the US economy earlier this week, which carries the Fed meeting and the European Central Bank meeting.

At exactly 05:09 am GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.02% to 1.1057 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1055, after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 1.1062, while it achieved the lowest at 1.1051, knowing that The pair started the trading session on a falling price gap after it concluded the trading last week at 1.1060 levels.

The market is currently looking for Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, to reveal the current account reading, which may reflect a shrinking surplus to 20.0 billion euros against 25.5 billion euros last September, in conjunction with the release of the trade balance reading, which may also show a shrinking surplus to The value of 19.0 billion euros against 19.2 billion euros in September, amid expectations for exports to decline more than imports in October.

Up to the disclosure of the Sentix index of consumer confidence for the euro area as a whole, which shows the widening contraction to 5.4 versus 4.5 in November, otherwise, the market looks to next Thursday the activities of the European Central Bank meeting, which is expected to be approved by manufacturers The monetary policy of the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at their current zero levels.

And with the fixing of the marginal lending rate at 0.25%, in addition to maintaining the interest rate on negative deposits -0.40% and moving forward with the quantitative easing program at 20 billion Euros per month as long as necessary, and this comes before we also witness Thursday the press conference of the European Central Bank governorate Christine Lagarde, who is her first press conference after she took over from former governor Mario Draghi early last month.

On the other hand, the markets are looking for tomorrow, Tuesday, for the launching of the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting to be held tomorrow and the day after tomorrow Wednesday in Washington, which is expected to remain on the short-term benchmark interest rates for the second consecutive meeting at between 1.75% and 2.00% simultaneously. With the disclosure of the expectations of members of the Committee to the rates of growth, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future interest rates for the next three years.

Up to the press conference to be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell on Wednesday, exactly half an hour after the end of the FOMC’s meeting to comment on the decisions of the Fed’s monetary policy makers, which has recently witnessed widespread criticism by US President Donald Trump who is calling on the Federal Reserve and his Powell Governor to go Move ahead to cut federal funds interest "to zero or less."

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar traded steady below the level of 1.1065, to face the price of more expected negative pressure during the coming period, on the way to achieving negative goals that start at 1.0995 then 1.0950.

Therefore, a bearish bias will be favored for today, supported by moving below SMA 50, taking into consideration that breaching 1.1108 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to recover again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0950 support and 1.1120 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

The narrow range still dominates the trading of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, which continues to fluctuate around the EMA50, and as long as the price is above 0.6755, our bullish outlook will remain effective, waiting for a positive incentive enough to push the price to visit our main awaited target at 0.7015.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6800 support and 0.6880 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.