Analytic reviews

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted toward decline during the Asian session, to witness its bounce for the third consecutive session from the top since March 22, 2013, while neglecting the negative stability of the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them on the cusp of developments and economic data expected on Friday from Before the American economy and in the shadow of the pricing of the markets to calm the tensions between Washington and Tehran, coinciding with the fact that the signing of the United States and China on the first stage of the trade agreement is around the corner.

At exactly 03:51 AM GMT, gold price futures for February delivery fell 0.35% to trade at $ 1,548.00 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,553.40 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session’s trading on a falling price gap after yesterday’s trading was concluded At $ 1,554.30 an ounce, while the US dollar index fell 0.02% to 97.42 compared to the opening at 97.44.

Investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of labor market data for the past month, which may reflect the stability of unemployment rates at the lowest in five decades of time at 3.5%, while a reading of the employment change index for sectors other than agriculture may show a slowdown in the pace of job creation to 162 One thousand jobs compared to 266 thousand jobs, and a reading of the average hourly income index may indicate an acceleration of growth to 0.3% compared to 0.2%.

Otherwise, we followed yesterday, US President Donald Trump expressed that the signing of the second stage of the trade agreement might be postponed until after the presidential elections, while emphasizing that he will begin negotiations with China about the second stage after signing the first stage next Wednesday, and this came after it reported The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that Chinese Vice Premier Liu Hu will go to Washington next Monday to sign the first phase of the trade agreement.

We would like to point out, since the price of gold ended last Wednesday its longest daily gains march in more than three decades after it tested a $ 1,600 per ounce barrier for the first time in seven years, and is currently preparing to end its longest weekly gains march in six months with a decline during the current week for the first Once in six weeks, in the wake of reduced concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the outbreak of war between the United States and Iran.

Technical analysis

Gold price confirmed the breaking of 1556.70 level after the daily candle closed below it, to open the way for the continuation of the decline during the upcoming sessions, where we expect to target 1519.00 then 1495.00 levels as the next major stops.

Thus, a bearish bias will be expected for today, taking into consideration that breaching 1556.70 and holding above it again will reactivate the main bullish trend scenario whose next target is located at 1617.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 1530.00 support and 1560.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

The euro currency fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness its rebound for the second consecutive session from its highest since December 26, while it is still facing its second weekly losses in a row against the US dollar on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today. Friday by the economies of the euro area and the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 05:28 am GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.03% to 1.1109 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1106, after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 1.1111, while achieving the lowest at 1.1102.

Currently, France is looking to the second largest economy in the euro area for the release of the industrial production reading, which may reflect a slowdown in the pace of growth to 0.1% compared to 0.4% in the previous reading last October, before we witness the disclosure of the index reading itself for Italy, the third largest The region's economies, which may explain stability at zero levels, versus a 0.3% decline in October.

Otherwise, yesterday we followed up on the statements of the European Union's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, in which he expressed that even if the Union agreed to all points in the trade agreement with Britain, this would take more than the eleven months available for negotiation, indicating that the time set for concluding an agreement It is a real challenge, adding that failure to reach an agreement will be more harmful to Britain than the Union, while touching on the importance of prioritizing around this year's tasks.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of labor market data for the past month, which may reflect the stability of unemployment rates at the lowest in five decades of time at 3.5%, while a reading of the employment change index for sectors other than agriculture may show a slowdown in the pace of creation Jobs to 162 thousand jobs compared to 266 thousand jobs. The reading of the average hourly income index may show that the growth accelerated to 0.3% compared to 0.2%.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar trades stable around the 1.1100 level, and we notice that the stochastic index starts with a positive momentum loss, waiting for a negative incentive to support the chances of achieving a further decline during the upcoming sessions.

Until now, the bearish intraday direction scenario is still likely, which targets testing the support of the main bullish channel at 1.1050 before trying to resume the main bullish trend, noting that breaching this level will extend the descending wave to target the level of 1.0985 as the next station, while a break of 1.1140 is an initial key to restore the trend Rookie main.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1030 support and 1.1180 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session, to promise to end its longest march of daily losses in six months against the US dollar after the economic developments and data that it had reported on the Australian economy and on the cusp of developments, data and developments expected on Friday by the American economy, the largest economy in the world.

At exactly 02:54 AM GMT, the Australian dollar pair rose against the US dollar by 0.01% to 0.6859 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6858, after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 0.6871, while achieving the lowest at 0.6851.

On the Australian economy, we followed the disclosure of the services index reading by the Australian Industrial Group (AIG), which reflected a contraction of 48.7 compared to a expansion of 53.7 last November, and this came before we witnessed the release of the retail sales index, which showed an acceleration Growth to 0.9%, compared to 0.1% last October, beating expectations for 0.4% growth.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of labor market data for the past month, which may reflect the stability of unemployment rates at the lowest in five decades of time at 3.5%, while a reading of the employment change index for sectors other than agriculture may show a slowdown in the pace of creation Jobs to 162 thousand jobs compared to 266 thousand jobs. The reading of the average hourly income index may show that the growth accelerated to 0.3% compared to 0.2%.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar hovering around the EMA50, and we are still waiting for a further drop to test the support of the bullish channel at 0.6795, to keep the negative scenario valid for the next period, taking into account that the breach of 0.6920 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to head towards 0.7015 areas again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6800 support and 0.6920 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

When buying an option against the trend, it is necessary to consult other technical analysis tools: the presence of divergence, reversal candlestick patterns. Buy against the trend strictly on the retest level! Buying an option before important economic news releases is considered risky. The expiration time depends on the strength of the level and the confirmation by additional tools of technical and fundamental analysis.

Awesome Oscillator shows a bearish divergence. Stochastic Oscillator signals overboughtness. If the price pivot level 58.66 is breached, a downward pattern 123 will form.

Our recommendation:

Sell below 58.66.

Stop Loss: 61.00.

Target levels: 56.94; 55.60; 53.31.

Analysis based on round-number levels, price channels and modified Elliot Waves

The general trend is upward. Round important level 0.6600 discouraged sellers. An H1 level truncated pattern was formed. Awesome Oscillator shows a bullish divergence, while Stochastic Oscillator signals oversoldness.

Our recommendations:

Buy as the upward wave pattern is forming, where wave A breaches the inclined channel of the downward pattern.

Stop Loss under the round important level 0.6600.

Target levels: 0.6680; 0.6750.

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The pair is trading above 1.1100 while consolidating in anticipation of the publication of new jobs data in the US. If it’s stronger than the consensus forecast of 164,000, the pair will be put under pressure and experience a limited decline.

The price is below the middle Bollinger band, above SMA 5, but below SMA 14. RSI is below 50% and is moving horizontally. Stoch are growing.

Trading recommendations:

If the price goes below 1.1100 following the publication of new jobs data, it will lead to a local drop to 1.1065.

When buying an option against a trend, it is necessary to confirm other technical analysis tools - the presence of divergence, candlestick reversal patterns. Buy against the trend strictly on the retest level! Buying an option before publishing important economic news is considered risky. The expiration time depends on the strength of the level and confirmation by additional tools of technical and fundamental analysis.

The resistance level of 126.25 actively holds back buyers. A bearish divergence has formed on Awesome Oscillator indicator, while Stochastic Oscillator indicator signals overboughtness.

Trading recommendations:

Sell below 125.30.

Stop loss under the resistance level 126.25.

Target levels-123.10; 120.00.

Stochastic Oscillator indicator signals overboughtness, while a bearish divergence formed on Awesome Oscillator. The currency pair is trading in the range of 365 and 135 moving averages directed downwards. The upward movement is probably a wave (B) forming an H8 level downward pattern. The formation of the descending wave pattern with a breakthrough of the 135 moving average will result in the completion of an M30 level rising pattern by breaching the inclined channel and the fractal point of entry.

Trading recommendations:

Sell while a descending structure is forming, where the wave (as) breaks the 135 moving average.

Stop loss for the resistance level of 75.27.

Target levels - 74.74; 74.42; 73.80.