Analytic reviews

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session against the US dollar amid the scarcity of economic data earlier this week by the Australian economy and the absence of the American market on Monday due to the holiday celebration day of Martin Luther King in the United States of America.

At 05:16 am GMT, the Australian dollar pair rose against the US dollar by 0.09% to 0.6883 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6877, after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 0.6885, while achieving the lowest at 0.6873.

This was followed by last weekend's economic data that showed the largest Australian trading partner and largest economy in Asia and the second largest economy in the world 6.1% during 2019 despite the trade dispute between Beijing and Washington, which recently witnessed its breakthrough with the signing of US President Donald Trump and Vice President Chinese State Council and Chairman of the Chinese negotiating team Liu He last Wednesday on the first phase of the trade deal in the White House.

It is noteworthy that the National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed last Friday, a seasonally adjusted reading of the fourth quarter GDP, which showed stable growth at 1.5%, little changed from the previous reading of the third quarter, surpassing expectations that indicated a slowdown in growth to 1.4%, as the reading showed Annual growth of the same index was stable at 6.0% as well, with little change from the previous annual reading for the third quarter, in line with expectations that indicated that.

The office also revealed at the time the annual reading of the retail sales index, which showed stable growth at 8.0%, unchanged from the previous annual reading last November, surpassing expectations that indicated a slowdown in growth to 7.9%, while the annual reading of industrial production showed accelerated growth to 6.9% versus 6.2%, contrary to expectations at 5.9%, and the reading of unemployment rates showed an increase to 5.2% compared to 5.1% in November.

Other than that, we followed last week, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a message sent to his US President Donald Trump after the world's two largest economies signed the first phase of the trade agreement, expressed that the agreement reflects that the two parties can resolve differences through dialogue, stating that he hopes to Washington should work for Chinese companies fairly, adding that the two sides should abide by the terms of the agreement to achieve greater progress in joint cooperation between the two countries.

Last week, we followed the report that touched on the fact that the Chinese Vice-Premier Hu noted that the trade agreement between his country and America will not affect the interests of other parties and that China's imports of American agricultural products are based on market principles, explaining that Chinese companies will import American agricultural commodities according to the needs Chinese consumer and market demand and supply, adding that it is not wise to start the second stage negotiations immediately.

On the other hand, then US Vice President Mike Pence said that negotiations for the second phase of the trade agreement between Washington and Beijing have already started, and it is reported that US President Trump noted during the signing of the trade agreement with China that his administration will leave the customs duties imposed on Chinese goods even after the signing of the first phase of The agreement and that the customs duties on Chinese goods will be completely eliminated after the signing of the second stage of the agreement.

Last Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchen also stated that the second stage of the trade agreement will see the abolition of more tariffs, while stating that the first stage has a comprehensive and implementable mechanism and that China has agreed to put laws to fulfill its obligations, expressing that some outstanding issues including technology and security The cyber will be worked on in the second stage, adding that Huawei's crisis is not an obstacle in the relationship between the United States and China.

Technical analysis

The AUDUSD pair is showing negative trades to press SMA 50, which could push the price to test the bullish channel support before trying to rise again.

Until now, the positive scenario remains valid unless 0.6880 then 0.6800 levels are broken and stability below it, noting that we are waiting for the visit of 0.7015 as a next main target.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6865 support and 0.6940 resistance

Expected trend for today: bullish

The pair may grow even before the ECB's monetary policy decision, as the regulator's future monetary policy is not expected to be resolved at this meeting.

The price is below the middle Bollinger band, above SMA 5, but below SMA 14. RSI is located above the oversold zone and is growing. Stoch are out of the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations:

If the price fixes above 1.1085, it may resume growth to 1.1165.

When buying an option against a trend, it is necessary to confirm other technical analysis tools – the presence of divergence, candlestick reversal patterns. Buy against the trend strictly on the retest level! Buying an option before publishing important economic news is considered risky.   The expiration time depends on the strength of the level and confirmation by additional technical and fundamental analysis tools.

The resistance level of 182.50 holds back buyers. A bearish divergence has formed on Awesome Oscillator indicator, and t Stochastic Oscillator indicator signals overboughtness. Breaking through the support level of 179.00 will result in the formation of a descending 123 pattern.

Trading recommendations:

Sell below 179.00.

Stop loss for the resistance level of 182.50.

Target levels:175.40; 172.00. Long-term targets: 159.50; 154.00.

The overall trend is downward. The currency pair is trading in the range of the round important level 0.9000. A bearish divergence has formed on Awesome Oscillator indicator. Breaking through the round secondary level 0.8980 will result in the formation of a descending pattern of the H2 level within the wave (C) of the descending pattern of the H4 level.

Trading recommendations:

Sell below 0.8971.

A stop loss of 0.9038.

Target levels: 0.8920; 0.8850.

The fluctuation of the US dollar in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness the highest since May 23 against the Japanese yen after the developments and economic data that were reported by the Japanese economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected on Friday by the American economy, which includes members ’talk The Federal Open Market Committee.

At exactly 06:07 AM GMT, the US dollar pair rose against the Japanese yen by 0.05% to 110.21 levels compared to the opening levels at 110.16, after the pair achieved its eight-month high at 110.29, while achieving the lowest during the trading session at 110.14 .

We have followed about the Japanese economy, the third largest economy in the world and the third largest industrialized country globally after both the United States of America and China, the disclosure of industrial sector data with the release of the Terratari industrial index, which showed a rise of 1.3% compared to a decline of 5.2% last October, Thus, the current reading is better than expected, which indicated an increase of 1.0%.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the release of housing market data by the US economy, with the release of each of the start-up homes and the building permit, and amid expectations that building permits will decline by 3.8% to about 1,405 thousand permits, compared to a 5.0% increase at 1,461 thousand permits in November. November, while start-up homes may reflect an increase of 2.0% to 1,340,000 homes compared to a rise of 3.8% at 1,314,000 homes.

This comes before we witness the speech of a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker about the economic expectations at the Economic Leadership Forum for New Jersey bankers, before the disclosure of industrial sector data for the largest industrial country in the world with the release of the industrial production index, which may reflect stability It is at zero levels, against a 0.1% rise in November.

In the same vein, the reading of the energy utilization index may show a decrease to 77.0% compared to 77.3% in November, leading to the disclosure of the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan index of consumer confidence for January, which may show stability of expansion at a value of 99.3 below Little change from what it was in the previous reading of December.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the employment opportunities and job turnover reading, which may reflect a decrease to 7.24 million compared to 7.27 million last October, before we witnessed another member of the Federal Committee, Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve, Randall Quarles, about banking supervision. At the annual meeting of the Banking Law Commission of the American Bar Association in Washington.

Technical analysis

The dollar versus yen pair shows new positive trades to approach our awaited target at 110.50, reinforcing expectations for the continuation of the bullish trend, which is organized within the ascending channel shown in the image, noting that exceeding the mentioned level will extend the upside wave to reach 111.50 as the next main target.

SMA 50 supports the expected rise, which will remain valid unless 109.33 level is broken and stability below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 109.50 support and 111.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the second session in four sessions from the lowest since the third of this month, condoning the US dollar index bounce for the second consecutive session from the lowest since the eighth of this month according to the reverse relationship Between them, following the economic developments and data that were reported on the Chinese economy by the largest consumer of metals globally and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected on Friday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At exactly 04:21 am GMT, the gold futures contracts for February delivery rose 0.14% to trade at $ 1,555.10 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,553.00 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the trading session on an upward price gap after it concluded yesterday's trading At $ 1,550.50 an ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 97.34 compared to the opening at 97.30.

We have followed the National Bureau of Statistics revealed to China the seasonally adjusted reading of the fourth quarter GDP, which showed stable growth at 1.5%, little changed from the previous reading for the third quarter, surpassing expectations that indicated a slowdown in growth to 1.4%, as indicated by the annual reading of the index The same growth stability at 6.0% also, little changed from the previous annual reading for the third quarter, and thus the current reading is in line with the expectations that indicated this.

In the same context, the office also revealed the annual reading of the retail sales index, which showed stable growth at 8.0%, unchanged from the previous annual reading last November, surpassing expectations that indicated a slowdown in growth to 7.9%, while the annual reading of production showed Industrial growth accelerated to 6.9% versus 6.2%, contrary to expectations at 5.9%, and the reading of unemployment rates showed an increase to 5.2% compared to 5.1% in November.

Other than that, we followed Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a message sent to his US counterpart, President Donald Trump after the world's two largest economies signed the first stage of the trade agreement, that the agreement reflects that the two parties can resolve differences through talks and dialogue, explaining that he hopes that Washington operates Chinese companies fairly and equitably, adding that the two sides must adhere to the terms of the agreement to achieve greater progress in joint cooperation between the two countries.

We also followed up yesterday the report that touched on the fact that Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He noted that the trade agreement between his country and America will not affect the interests of other parties and that China's imports of American agricultural products are based on market principles, explaining that Chinese companies will import American agricultural commodities according to To the needs of the Chinese consumer, demand and supply in the market, adding that it is not wise to start the second stage negotiations immediately.

In contrast, US Vice President Mike Pence said that negotiations for the second phase of the trade agreement between Washington and Beijing have already started, and it is reported that US President Trump noted during the signing of the trade agreement with China that his administration would leave the customs duties imposed on Chinese goods even after the signing of the first phase of the agreement And that the customs duties on Chinese goods will be abolished completely after signing the second stage of the agreement.

The terms of the first stage of the trade agreement between Washington and Beijing included that China increase the volume of its purchases of American goods and services by $ 200 billion depending on the exports of the United States to China in 2017, including $ 52.4 billion in energy exports, $ 77.7 billion of Manufacturing goods and $ 37.9 billion in services in addition to $ 32 billion in agricultural commodities, amid the US pledge to provide markets with high-quality goods and services and to eliminate some tariffs imposed on Chinese goods.

Also, according to the agreement, the two parties commit to protecting intellectual property on a fair and effective basis, and that the two parties will work to open markets for each of the services in a fair and equal manner, amid the parties ’commitment not to interfere in the currency exchange rate for any reasons related to competitive purposes, and that transparency must be adhered to, which ensures that China accepts Announcing its foreign exchange reserves and quarterly imports of goods and services.

The agreement also includes the abolition of American tariffs on some Chinese technology goods and the reduction of American tariffs on other Chinese goods and goods by $ 120 billion to 7.5%, while American tariffs will remain 25% on a group of Chinese industrial products and components valued at $ 250 billion, Amid the Chinese tariffs on American goods and merchandise, exceeding $ 100 billion, until the two sides adopt the second stage of the agreement.

It is noteworthy that US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchen said on Wednesday that the second stage of the trade agreement will witness the abolition of more tariffs, while stating that the first stage has a comprehensive and implementable mechanism and that China agreed to put laws to fulfill its obligations, expressing that some outstanding issues including technology and security The cyber will be worked on in the second stage, adding that Huawei's crisis is not an obstacle in the relationship between the United States and China.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the release of housing market data by the US economy, with the release of each of the start-up homes and the building permit, and amid expectations that building permits will decline by 3.8% to about 1,405 thousand permits, compared to a 5.0% increase at 1,461 thousand permits in November. November, while start-up homes may reflect an increase of 2.0% to 1,340,000 homes compared to a rise of 3.8% at 1,314,000 homes.

This comes before we witness the speech of a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker about the economic expectations at the Economic Leadership Forum for New Jersey bankers, before the disclosure of industrial sector data for the largest industrial country in the world with the release of the industrial production index, which may reflect stability It is at zero levels, against a 0.1% rise in November.

In the same vein, the reading of the energy utilization index may show a decrease to 77.0% compared to 77.3% in November, leading to the disclosure of the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan index of consumer confidence for January, which may show stability of expansion at a value of 99.3 below Little change from what it was in the previous reading of December.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the employment opportunities and job turnover reading, which may reflect a decrease to 7.24 million compared to 7.27 million last October, before we witnessed another member of the Federal Committee, Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve, Randall Quarles, about banking supervision. At the annual meeting of the Banking Law Commission of the American Bar Association in Washington.

Technical analysis

The gold price did not show any strong movement yesterday, to continue to fluctuate around 1556.70, maintaining its stability below it, and therefore, our expectations for the downside will remain unchanged for the next period, which mainly targets 1536.50 and 1519.00 levels, while achieving it requires stability without Level 1556.70.

The expected trading range for today is between 1530.00 support and 1565.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range slanting back down during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the second consecutive session from its highest since January 7 against the US dollar on the cusp of developments and economic data expected on Friday by the economies of the euro area and the American economy, which includes Recent members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 05:23 am GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.02% to 1.1135 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1137, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.1131, while achieving the highest at 1.1143.

The markets are looking forward to the release of the treasury budget reading for France, the second largest economy in the eurozone, before we witness the disclosure of the seasonally adjusted reading of the current account index for the eurozone economies as a whole, which may reflect the widening of the surplus to 34.3 billion euros against 32.4 billion euros in October, simultaneously. With the release of the trade balance for Italy, the third largest economy in the region, which may explain the shrinking surplus to 7.22 billion euros, compared to 8.06 billion euros.

Up to the disclosure of inflation data for the eurozone economies as a whole with the release of the annual final reading of the consumer price index, which may reflect the stability of growth at 1.3%, little changed from the initial reading for the month of December and 1.0% in the previous reading for the month of November, as well The substantial annual reading of the same indicator may also show stability in growth of 1.3%, little changed from the previous preliminary reading and the previous reading of November.

Otherwise, we followed yesterday the European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde expressed the fact that the European Central attaches importance to citizens by focusing on issues other than price stability and the goal of inflation within the next review of it, indicating that it will be open and transparent during the coming period and will listen to the concerns of citizens, She added that monetary policy makers should agree on the first policy review since 2003 at the next meeting.

Lajad also touched on the importance of uniting, confronting the growing populist movements and addressing the issue of Britain's exit from the European Union and the growing trade protectionism, explaining that uniting Europe gives it preference in discussions with other countries and defending the common interests of Europe, in another context, as the European Commission President Ursula Vaud Dair stated Line also yesterday that the European Parliament will ratify the Brexit agreement by the end of this month.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the release of housing market data by the US economy, with the release of each of the start-up homes and the building permit, and amid expectations that building permits will decline by 3.8% to about 1,405 thousand permits, compared to a 5.0% increase at 1,461 thousand permits in November. November, while start-up homes may reflect an increase of 2.0% to 1,340,000 homes compared to a rise of 3.8% at 1,314,000 homes.

This comes before we witness the speech of a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker about the economic expectations at the Economic Leadership Forum for New Jersey bankers, before the disclosure of industrial sector data for the largest industrial country in the world with the release of the industrial production index, which may reflect stability It is at zero levels, against a 0.1% rise in November.

In the same vein, the reading of the energy utilization index may show a decrease to 77.0% compared to 77.3% in November, leading to the disclosure of the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan index of consumer confidence for January, which may show stability of expansion at a value of 99.3 below Little change from what it was in the previous reading of December.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the employment opportunities and job turnover reading, which may reflect a decrease to 7.24 million compared to 7.27 million last October, before we witnessed another member of the Federal Committee, Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve, Randall Quarles, about banking supervision. At the annual meeting of the Banking Law Commission of the American Bar Association in Washington.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar trades bounced lower after approaching the 1.1180 level yesterday, to keep the bearish trend valid for the next period, pending a visit to the 1.1065 level, which represents the support of the bullish channel that appears in the picture.

It should be noted that breaching the mentioned support will extend the descending wave to target 1.0980 as the next negative station, while breaching 1.1180 represents the key to restore the main bullish direction again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1060 support and 1.1200 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

The Australian dollar pair fluctuates against the US dollar at the EMA50, as it is affected by the stochastic negative, waiting for a positive incentive enough to push the price to resume the expected bullish direction for the upcoming period, which targets the level of 0.7015.

In general, we will maintain our positive expectations unless 0.6880 and most important 0.6800 levels are broken and stability below them.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6870 support and 0.6950 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.

When buying an option against the trend, confirmation of other technical analysis tools is mandatory - the presence of divergence, candlestick reversal patterns. Buying against the trend strictly at the retest level! Buying an option before publishing important economic news is considered risky. The expiration time depends on the strength of the level and confirmation by additional tools of technical and fundamental analysis.