Analytic reviews

The Australian dollar rose during the Asian session to witness its highest since last March 21 against the US dollar after the developments and economic data that we followed about the Australian economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today Wednesday by the US economy, which includes the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the press conference To be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell in Washington.

At exactly 02:50 am GMT, the Australian dollar pair rose against the US dollar by 0.51% to 0.6524 levels compared to the opening levels at 06491, after the pair achieved its highest level in six weeks at 0.6530, while it achieved its lowest during the trading session at 0.6487.

On the Australian economy, we have followed the disclosure of inflation data for the first quarter, with the release of the consumer price index, which showed a slowdown in growth to 0.3% compared to 0.7% in the previous reading for the fourth quarter, surpassing expectations that indicated a slowdown in growth to 0.2%, while the reading showed The intrinsic index of the same index stabilized the pace of growth at 0.5%, little changed from the previous reading for the fourth quarter, beating expectations of 0.3%.

In the same context, the annual reading of the consumer price index showed that growth accelerated to 2.2% compared to 1.8% in the previous annual reading for the fourth quarter, contrary to expectations that indicated an acceleration of growth to 2.0%, as the substantial annual reading of the consumer price index showed that growth accelerated to 1.8% against 1.6% in the fourth quarter, contrary to expectations that indicated its stability at the same previous rate.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of the initial reading of the GDP of the United States for the first quarter, which may show the contraction of the largest economy in the world 4.0% compared to the growth of 2.1% in the fourth quarter, while the initial reading may reflect the GDP Measured by prices from the previous quarter, the growth rate slowed to 1.0% compared to 1.3% in the fourth quarter.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of housing market data with the release of existing home sales, which may show a 13.3% decline compared to a rise of 2.4% last February, and in conjunction with the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting April 28-29, which is expected to Through it, monetary policymakers at the Federal Reserve maintain reference interest rates at zero levels between 0.25 and 0.25%.

Up to the events of the press conference to be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, which comes half an hour after the end of the activities of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in Washington, and it is reported that the Federal Committee approved at the previous surprising meeting held on the 15th of March which was the second in Less than two weeks after the previous snap meeting on the third of the same month, returning interest to zero levels.

It is noteworthy that the Federal Committee reduced the interest on federal funds in the previous meeting by 100 basis points from between 1.00% and 1.25% to zero levels, which it remained from 2008 until the meeting of 27-28 October 2015, after reducing it at the emergency meeting The previous rate of 50 basis points from between 1.50% and 1.75%, and in the wake of cutting interest three times by 25 basis points in previous meetings last year.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar pair managed to touch our first waited target at 0.6500 and settle near it and gets continuous positive support from the EMA50, which enhances the chances of the continuation of the rise within the upward channel that appears in the picture, waiting for more upside tendency and heading towards our extended target that reaches To 0.6685.

Therefore, we will maintain our bullish expectations for the next period unless 0.6407 level is broken and stability below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6430 support and 0.6570 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.

CADJPY 

The overall trend is downward. A start fractal has formed below the 135 moving average, followed by a signal fractal. A breakout of the start fractal will result in the formation of a descending 1-2-3 pattern and a breakout of the price pivot zone of 76.28. A bearish divergence has formed on Awesome Oscillator, and the moving averages of Stochastic Oscillator are directed down from the overbought zone.

Trading recommendations:

Sell below 76.28.

Stop loss: 76.50.

Target levels: 76.09; 75.87; 75.59.

The CADJPY rate online: monitor the movement of the pair in real time.

#BA

The US is gradually lifting the COVID-19 lockdown. It’s because of those restrictions that the Boeing shares had fallen.

The stock is trading in a downward price channel. A bullish divergence has formed on Awesome Oscillator, and the moving averages of Stochastic Oscillator have moved out of the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations:

Buy strictly while an ascending 1-2-3 pattern is forming above the upper border of the descending price channel.

Stop loss: 120.00.

Target levels: 185.00; 214.00.

The #BA shares online: monitor the movement of the shares in real time.

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar confirmed the breach of the 0.6407 level after closing the daily candle above it, which opens the way for more intraday and short term gains, on his way to visit 0.6500 then 0.6685 levels mainly.

Consequently, we expect to witness positive trading during the upcoming sessions unless we witness a clear and stable break below 0.6407.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6400 support and 0.6540 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range tilted to a decline during the Asian session against the US dollar on the threshold of developments and economic data expected today Tuesday by the fourth-largest economy in the euro area Spain and the US economy the largest economy in the world, which includes the launch of the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington.

At 05:12 am GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.09% to 1.0819 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.0829, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.0817, while achieving the highest at 1.0836.

Investors are looking to the Spanish economy to disclose labor market data with the release of the unemployment rate index, which may show an increase to 15.6% compared to 13.8% in the fourth quarter. Otherwise, the markets will look after tomorrow, Thursday, to the European Central Bank meeting, which is expected to Through it monetary policymakers keep interest rates at their current zero levels.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the release of the merchandise trade balance index, which may explain the deficit shrinking to $ 55.0 billion compared to $ 59.9 billion last February, in conjunction with the disclosure of the initial reading of the wholesale inventory index, which may be Reflecting the contraction of the decline to 0.4% compared to 0.7% in February.

This comes before the annual reading of the house price index, which may show stable growth at 3.1% during February, and the disclosure by the largest industrialized country in the world of industrial sector data with the release of the Richmond Industrial Index, which may reflect a contraction of 41 versus a widening of 2 in March. Last March, in conjunction with the release of the consumer confidence index, which may show a shrinkage of expansion to 88.3 compared to 120.0 in March.

In another context, investors are awaiting later in the day for the launch of the FOMC meeting, April 28-29, in which it is expected that the benchmark interest rates will remain at zero levels between 0.25% and before we witness After tomorrow, Wednesday, the press conference holders will be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, half an hour after the meeting ends.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar ended yesterday's trading below the 1.0840 level, which keeps our expectations for the bearish trend intact and short term, where the moving average constitutes 50 negative pressure against the price, waiting for the resumption of the downside wave that targets 1.0700 then 1.0640 as the next main stations.

On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.0840 and holding above it will stop the expected decline and lead the price to turn towards the rise and achieve gains that start with visiting the 1.0966 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0700 support and 1.0900 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

Gold price futures fell during the Asian session to witness its rebound to the fourth session from the top since April 16, amid the rise of the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them on the threshold of developments and economic data expected today by the American economy, which includes the launch of the activities of the Federal Market Committee meeting Open markets in Washington and in the shadow of market pricing to ease restrictions and the end of the global closure, with many countries announcing plans to ease restrictions.

At exactly 04:24 AM GMT, gold price futures for June delivery decreased 0.80% to trade at $ 1,710.70 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,724.40 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the trading session on an upward price gap after it concluded yesterday's trading At $ 1,723.80 an ounce, with the US dollar index rising 0.08% to 100.16 compared to the opening at 100.08.

Investors are currently awaiting by the American economy the release of the merchandise trade balance index, which may explain the deficit shrinkage to $ 55.0 billion, compared to $ 59.9 billion last February, in conjunction with the disclosure of the initial reading of the wholesale inventory index, which may reflect the shrinking decline To 0.4% compared to 0.7% in February.

This comes before the annual reading of the house price index, which may show stable growth at 3.1% during February, and the disclosure by the largest industrialized country in the world of industrial sector data with the release of the Richmond Industrial Index, which may reflect a contraction of 41 versus a widening of 2 in March. Last March, in conjunction with the release of the consumer confidence index, which may show a shrinkage of expansion to 88.3 compared to 120.0 in March.

In another context, investors are awaiting later in the day for the launch of the FOMC meeting, April 28-29, in which it is expected that the benchmark interest rates will remain at zero levels between 0.25% and before we witness After tomorrow, Wednesday, the press conference holders will be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, half an hour after the meeting ends.

We would like to point out, that the Federal Reserve monetary policymakers adopted at the previous Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on March 15th that surprising meeting, which was the second in less than two weeks after the previous sudden meeting on the third of the same month, to return interest on Federal funds to zero levels while reducing interest rates at the time by 100 basis points from between 1.00% and 1.25%.

It is noteworthy that the return of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee to the interest of the federal funds to the zero levels that remained since 2008 until the meeting of 27-28 October 2015, and came after reducing them in the previous emergency meeting by 50 basis points from between 1.50% and 1.75 %, And after the committee members cut interest three times by 25 basis points in previous meetings last year 2019.

In the same context, the Federal Open Market Committee announced in the middle of last month that it will carry out repurchases of treasury bonds of at least $ 500 billion per month and mortgage-backed securities of at least $ 200 billion per month, provided that these purchases are made at the appropriate speed to support The smooth performance of the stock market, treasury and mortgage agency.

In another context, the markets are also looking to tomorrow, Wednesday, to reveal the initial reading of the GDP of the United States for the first quarter, which may show the contraction of the largest economy in the world 3.9% compared to the growth of 2.1% in the fourth quarter, while the initial reading may reflect the GDP measured by prices For the last quarter, the pace of growth slowed to 1.0%, compared to 1.3% in the fourth quarter.

Otherwise, the markets look to the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow, Thursday, through which monetary policymakers are expected to keep interest rates at their current zero levels and stabilize the marginal lending rate at 0.25% in addition to keeping the deposit interest rate negative -0.50%, The size of the Emergency Bond Purchase Package (PEPP) is expected to increase by 500 billion euros to 1.25 trillion euros.

Technical analysis

Gold price based on SMA 50 and trying to start an ascending wave now, noting that the stochastic starts to cross positively, which constitutes a positive incentive that we are waiting to contribute to pushing the price to resume the expected bullish direction for the next period, whose targets begin at 1747.43 and extend to 1678.45 after penetrating the level the previous.

Thus, we will maintain our expectations for the bullish trend over the intraday basis, taking note that a break of 1705.00 will pressure the price to test the most important support for the short term trading at 1678.45 before any new attempt to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 1700.00 support and 1745.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range slanting to a downward trend during the Asian session against the Japanese yen following the developments and economic data that it followed from the Japanese economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today by the American economy, which includes the launching of the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington.

At 06:04 am GMT, the US dollar pair fell against the Japanese yen by 0.05% to 107.20 levels compared to the opening levels at 107.25 after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 107.19, while it achieved its highest at 107.34.

We have followed the Japanese economy on the disclosure of labor market data with the release of the unemployment rate reading, which showed an increase to 2.5%, in line with expectations, compared to 2.4% last February. This came before we witnessed the Bank of Japan’s disclosure of the annual core reading of the CPI which showed that growth slowed to 0.1% compared to the previous annual reading for February and expectations at 0.2%.

This comes hours after the central bank's monetary policymakers decided at the April 27 meeting, which was shortened for one day as a precautionary measure against the spread of the Coronavirus, to maintain short-term reference interest rates at 0.10%, which came in line with expectations, And with the disclosure of the Bank of Japan monetary policy statement, which reflected the Japanese central bank's further stimulus.

In the same context, yesterday, the monetary policy statement indicated that the monetary policymakers of the Bank of Japan raised the ceiling for the purchase of corporate and commercial securities that it pledges to purchase to 20 trillion yen from 7 trillion yen in advance, as well as the Japanese central bank’s commitment to purchase unlimited quantities. Of government bonds by canceling the previous purchase guidance at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen.

The central bank’s monetary policy statement included a paragraph, “The Bank of Japan will purchase the necessary amounts of government bonds without setting an upper limit, so that the yield of 10-year bonds will remain at around zero percent.” This came before we also witnessed yesterday the press conference held by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko. Kuroda in Tokyo, through which he stressed that the Japanese central bank is moving forward in providing support to the third-largest economy in the world.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the release of the merchandise trade balance index, which may explain the deficit shrinking to $ 55.0 billion compared to $ 59.9 billion last February, in conjunction with the disclosure of the initial reading of the wholesale inventory index, which may Reflect the contraction of the decline to 0.4% compared to 0.7% in February.

This comes before the annual reading of the house price index, which may show stable growth at 3.1% during February, and the disclosure by the largest industrialized country in the world of industrial sector data with the release of the Richmond Industrial Index, which may reflect a contraction of 41 versus a widening of 2 in March. Last March, in conjunction with the release of the consumer confidence index, which may show a shrinkage of expansion to 88.3 compared to 120.0 in March.

In another context, investors are awaiting later in the day for the launch of the FOMC meeting, April 28-29, in which it is expected that the benchmark interest rates will remain at zero levels between 0.25% and before we witness After tomorrow, Wednesday, the press conference holders will be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, half an hour after the meeting ends.

We would like to point out, that the Federal Reserve monetary policymakers adopted at the previous Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on March 15th that surprising meeting, which was the second in less than two weeks after the previous sudden meeting on the third of the same month, to return interest on Federal funds to zero levels while reducing interest rates at the time by 100 basis points from between 1.00% and 1.25%.

Technical analysis

The price of the pair in yesterday's trading maintained its stability below the level of 117.65, to form an additional barrier to negative trades, and to facilitate the task of gathering the additional negative momentum, and we note that its infiltration is currently around 115.95.

The foregoing, supports the negative continuity, so we should wait for the price to continue to fall until recording the main targets, which are concentrated at 114.70 and 114.25, respectively.

The expected trading range for today is between 116.65 and 114.70.

Expected trend for today: bearish.

EURUSD

The overall trend is downward. A start fractal has formed below the 135 moving average, followed by signal fractals. Breaking through the start fractal will result in the formation of a descending wave M30 level pattern within the C wave of a descending H8 level pattern.

Trading recommendations:

Sell below 1.0815.

Stop loss: 1.0860.

Target levels: 1.0784; 1.0730; 1.0665.

The EURUSD rate online: monitor the movement of the pair in real time.

 #SURGUT

The stock is trading in the range of 365 and 135 moving averages. Stochastic Oscillator signals overboughtness. Breaking through the price pivot zone of 34.68 will result in the formation of a descending wave pattern.

Trading recommendations:

Sell below 34.68.

Stop loss – 36.40.

Target levels – 32.71; 30.50.

The #SURGUT rate online: monitor the movement of the shares in real time.

AUDUSD

The pair has fully formed the descending flag trend continuation pattern. It’s supported by the increased demand for risk assets, the revitalization of China-Australia trade, as well as the possible weakening of the US dollar amid the unprecedented stimulus measures by the Fed and the US Treasury.

Technical side:

The price is above the middle Bollinger band, above SMA 5 and SMA 14. RSI is above the 50% level and is turning up. Stoch are still declining.

Trading recommendations:

Buy the pair as long as it holds above 0.6440 with a likely increase to 0.6545.

The AUDUSD rate online: monitor the movement of the pair in real time.