First speech of new head of US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen did not have almost any impact on USD. She showed full continuity of Ben Bernanke approach. During her speech to US Senate Committee on Banking she spoke about the continuation of monthly stimulus reduction by 10 billion dollars but she also mentioned that the decrease of unemployment rate below 6,5% will not lead to monetary policy tightening. Due to that fact US markets continued to increase.
If to speak about currency market then there is quite unclear situation and we can make a prediction that in the absence of important news from US market dynamics will be formed by technical factors.
Due to technical overbought EURUSD and GBPUSD most likely will continue to decrease, while USDJPY and NZDUSD on the other hand are likely to increase due to own reasons. Japanese Yen can get a support in the short-term and even try to have a correction on the level of 101.00, but in general the correction will continue because of the soft monetary policy of Bank of Japan. New Zealand dollar get a support due to the fact, that Reserve Band of New Zealand expected to increase the refinance rate. But we do not expect a rapid increase. We believe that it is better to sell it when it comes to the level of 0.8400.
Semen Kamenskiy